Niners Nation seems torn over who should be starting at quarterback - the veteran Alex Smith or Colin Kaepernick, the unproven but more talented second-year QB who replaced a concussed Smith a month ago and has been named the starter once again.
Let's not focus on this for a minute - the media are focusing on this enough...too much if you ask me. Blame goes around to everyone for Sunday's loss to the Rams, particularly the lack of a running game in the second half (outside of a couple of Kaepernick scrambles) and some dumb play-calling - why have Colin pitch it in that situation when the play-calling had been to minimize risk the entire half/game?
There is a story I'd like to turn your attention to. The real story of what could be the Niners' demise, the story that most people (even a lot of Niners fans) are ignoring is the loss of Kendall Hunter, who as Frank Gore's complimentary back, averaged 5.2 yards/carry on 71 attempts. The void he left was felt last week when Gore, who rushed for 914 yards in 11 games with Hunter as his backup, had a season high in carries (23), but only totaled 58 yards (a season low 2.5 yards/carry).This included a terrible second half showing of 13 carries and 18 yards. It's only a one game sample, but I believe the loss of Hunter should be spoken about a lot more than whatever quarterback the Niners decide to line up under center.
Solutions for RB
The Niners have a few options after Gore that they can go with:
This is aside from using Kaepernick in running situations, like they did last week (9 carries, 84 yards). I do believe that as long as CK is starting - which I think will be the rest of the year and beyond, we will see a handful of designed runs for him that will net huge plays in each game.
Brandon Jacobs: He's only appeared in two games, getting a total of 5 carries for 7 yards. Any reasonable football fan will tell you that Jacobs is not a guy that can be counted on to "spell" Gore, or even be trusted to take a couple of series off of Gore's plate like Hunter did. I do not like him as the second option at all and I worry that our offense will suffer greatly if Jacobs remains the second option. No other running back besides Gore got carries besides Jacobs (4 carries for 6 yards against the Rams).
Anthony Dixon: He's been active for all 12 games, but only averages a carry per game - primarily used as a blocker. Like Jacobs, he's really not a serious threat to take away carries from Gore.
LaMichael James: He remains the enigma of the 49ers backfield. He hasn't be activated for any games yet this year - still awaiting that elusive first career carry. It's a carry that many of us Niners fans hope will be the first of many great ones w/ the team. If he shows the same explosiveness that he did with Oregon, we will have a great dilemma on our hands in the near future when deciding who to make our primary back - Hunter or James.
As crazy as it might sound to say, I believe James is the key for the 49ers offense going forward. His running style and speed is similar to Hunter's, a change of pace that is necessary and not seen with Jacobs (who has a similar style to Gore except for the simple fact that Jacobs sucks) or Dixon. He might have to shake off a little rust, and the Niners' matchups coming up aren't the easiest - against the Dolphins (3.7 yards allowed/carry - 4th best), Patriots (3.9/carry - 8th best), Seattle (which allows 4.5/carry) & Arizona (4.1/carry). As a whole, these games should provide the Niners with a true test as to whether they can rely on James in a Hunter-esque role in January when "The Tournament" starts.
Predictions for Week 14
As many know at this point, Harbaugh has been a machine, especially when it comes to getting his team's best efforts after losing the week before. Following his 5 previous regular season losses, the Harbaugh-led Niners have notched a victory in all of those following games, winning by a combined 106-17 in those matchups. The amazing stat (as if allowing 3.4 points per game in the game following a loss wasn't enough) is that in those games, the defense has allowed a total of ZERO TOUCHDOWNS. What he has done and been able to get out of this team is simply remarkable.
I do believe that the Dolphins will break that TD streak, but will likely only notch one, maybe two tops. Hunter may be out, but the defense will still continue to roll. I see a 20-13, 27-13 type of game here for the Niners. I really hope that they can get James going this week, because I don't think Gore will be able to continue to pile up carries like he did last week. The more carries he gets, the worse the Niners chances of winning will be.
49ers - 24/7/365 (or 366). All angles covered, especially the obtuse ones. Fantasy sports, analysis, predictions - all done on a weekly basis.
Saturday, December 8, 2012
Thursday, November 29, 2012
Kaep Dance: How Alex Smith Lost His Job to Colin Kaepernick
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| Alex Smith will likely be doing a lot of watching the rest of 2012. |
In a way, I feel bad for Alex Smith.
After a rocky start to his 49ers career which featured just as many offensive coordinators & systems as seasons played, Alex finally got into his groove with head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman.
That triad of offensive folks has been an integral part in the sudden reemergence of a Niners squad that struggled to find offensive consistency in Smith's first six seasons on the team. Before the game in which Smith suffered his concussion against the Rams a couple weeks back, Smith was riding a hot streak with Harbaugh that he had never had before in his career. Including the 2011 playoffs, Smith helped lead the Niners to victories in 20 out of 26 games in the Harbaugh era (not including the tie, a game which he didn't finish).
However, he has been given the label "game manager" by many people. He has completed 64% of his regular season passes in the 25 regular season games in the Harbaugh era, but averaged under 200 yards a game (hardly a number that a great QB would average).
Then again, Smith was never supposed to be the key ingredient in 49ers success in the Harbaugh regime. A combination of a ground-and-pound with Frank Gore and play action has minimized the risk element that passing games can sometimes create (Smith had a league-low 1.1% of his passes intercepted last season).
With such success, why was Harbaugh so quick to oust a healthy Smith only to kick-start the career of Colin Kaepernick, who the Niners drafted in the second round of the 2011 draft?
It's quite simple - Harbaugh has wanted to move on from the Alex Smith era since he got to San Francisco
- Drafting of Kaepernick in 2011 2nd round, not a round where you normally draft QBs to be long-term understudies/back-ups. One of the first picks made in the Harbaugh era was the drafting of Kaepernick, who excelled in the pistol offense in his prestigious career at Nevada. At the time, Smith had been struggling to find consistency behind center. You could blame the coaches who couldn't maximize his talents (as Harbaugh has), the turnover of offensive coordinators in his tenure, the lack of talented targets that he has been surrounded with.
For whatever reason, Smith has clicked for the Niners. Still, drafting Colin ultimately meant that Smith's days were numbered, even if he had as great of a run as he has now. The timing of the concussion allowed Harbaugh to insert Kaepernick into the starting lineup without ruffling the feathers of fans and media members who would have been puzzled and pissed off if Smith was demoted without seeing Kaepernick play.
Sure, Harbaugh could have started the 2012 season with Kaepernick, but perhaps this was the easier way for him to insert Kaepernick into the lineup. Not as much fuss. - Harbaugh flirted with Peyton Manning in the 2012 offseason. He may try to BS to the media and tell them he didn't want Peyton, but let's be real - Harbaugh wanted Peyton. He went to see Peyton's workout in March, only to be shunned when Manning chose the Denver as his next destination.
During that time, Alex Smith didn't really field any serious offers from other teams. So when the Manning thing fell on its face, Harbaugh did an about-face and said Smith was their plan all along. The only way he's not legitimately BSing about this is if he thought Manning was not destined to be a Niner when he went to see him. Otherwise, Harbaugh was doing what most coaches would do with their starting QB - he coddles Smith's ego by telling everyone Smith was the planned starter for 2012 even though we know that the action of going to see Manning speaks louder than his words ever will.
Remember...Kaepernick still had to earn it...
The concussion was the best way for Harbaugh to make Kaepernick his starter. If Kaepernick had gotten beaten down by the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football, we wouldn't be talking about this and Alex Smith would be starting against the St. Louis Rams on Sunday. Smith would have started the Saints game and would have remained starter throughout the season regardless of his performance in that game.
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| As long as he doesn't mess up badly, Kaep will remain 49ers starter for years to come |
However, Kaep looked like an All-Pro in his first career start against one of the league's best defenses. That performance earned him another start, a tough road test against the Saints, whose defense, to put it politely, has sucked this year.
If Kaep comes down a little bit this week, will he be replaced? At this point, I believe he has to play his way out of a starting role - like 3 or 4 interceptions-bad, a performance that would have people questioning his judgment for Harbaugh to take him out.
If Kaep comes down a little bit this week, will he be replaced? At this point, I believe he has to play his way out of a starting role - like 3 or 4 interceptions-bad, a performance that would have people questioning his judgment for Harbaugh to take him out.
As simple as it was, I believe that the Wednesday press conference was the coronation of the Kaepernick era. If Harbaugh really wanted to go back to Alex this week and beyond, I don't think we get a special conference to announce that he will go back to starting - we'd be reading a simple blurb in an online article about it.
Instead, Harbaugh awkwardly tip-toed around the idea that Alex was a back-up and said that he was playing the "hot hand" with Kaepernick. Uhm, last I checked, Smith's last full-game was an 18-for-19, 232 yard, 3 passing TD performance - not sure it gets any hotter than that. (Even if you believe that Alex is a game manager, those kind of stats don't usually warrant a benching).
We shall see how Kaepernick does in the coming weeks, with tough road tests at New England and Seattle sprinkled in the end of season schedule. I believe he will succeed just as everything and everyone has succeeded since Harbaugh has become coach - this is ultimately the main reason why I support Harbaugh's decision to go with Kaepernick.
In Harbaugh We Trust
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| Harbaugh has handed over the offense to Kaepernick. We should trust his judgment |
Harbaugh may not be the best at covering up his BS, but no one can question his effectiveness as a coach in the past decade.
In his coaching stints with San Diego (college), Stanford & San Francisco, Harbaugh has amassed a record of 79-32-1 (over 70% winning percentage).
He had success at San Diego which has yet to be replicated. He built Stanford from a bumbling Pac-10 school to one that now succeeds in both recruiting and on the field. Now, he's maximizing the talent that the Niners have and that other coaches (like Singletary) were unable to turn into success.
His short reign as 49ers coach has been nothing but a tremendous success (21-5-1 regular season mark and likely a second division title in two years). I'm willing to give Harbaugh the benefit of the doubt on this decision, even if it means benching a guy who's playing the best ball of his career in favor of a younger, more talented quarterback.
If the Niners don't win the Super Bowl (or hell, if they don't advance to the same point of the playoffs that they did last year with Smith), I'm sure we will hear all about how this was a bad decision and that Harbaugh should have stuck with Smith. If we judged all football decisions based on this criteria though, we could say 31 teams made bad decisions in their quest to win the Super Bowl.
I say let's see what Kaepernick can do with the remaining 5 games and see just how right (or wrong) Harbaugh's decision to play him will be.
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
The Beginning of Kaep as the San Franchise & Other Week 11 Musings
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| The free Gameday Magazine I got from the PR folks after the game along w/ my ticket stub for the MNF game against the Bears |
The last major thing we did before flying back to Chicago was catching the Niners match-up against the Bears in a battle of back-up QBs, both who got the start thanks to QB concussions to the starters a week before.
Many were expecting the battle of Colin Kaepernick & Jason Campbell to be an ugly one. Well, it was, for half of them at least. While Kaep shined in his first career start, Campbell never had a shot, battling the combination of slow feet, a bad offensive front five & a devastating 49ers front that never really gave Campbell and company a chance to get into an offensive groove.
With the Niners carrying a 20-0 lead into the half, the real question to be solved was whether the Niners could complete the shutout, not whether the Bears had a chance to come back (they didn't).
Another question that arose around Niner Nation and on ESPN was whether the Niners should stick with the second-year QB from Nevada or go back to the less-flashy veteran in Alex Smith.
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| First row seats for MNF have their perks |
I've gone back and forth on this, and I think I've settled on the realization that Harbaugh will let Alex Smith play as long as he's healthy. One start does not make a season, even if it's against a solid defense in the Bears. I was at the game, so I'm not sure if it was more what the Niners were doing that was creating offensive success or if the Bears were just having a difficult time adjusting to a QB they didn't have much tape on.
I was wrong...about the Niners going with a conservative approach and running it a ton with Kaepernick starting. They threw the ball a lot more than I thought - this makes me believe that Harbaugh trusts him with the offense (and gives me hope that he might get another shot sooner rather than later).
Whatever the reason, I expect to see Smith starting if he is healthy. I know the veterans on the team respect everything Smith has gone through in his career with the Niners to get where he is at now. As much as I'd like to see how Kaepernick can build off of this start, I think we may need to wait and see on it (assuming Smith clears concussion tests this week).
I still believe Kaepernick will have the inside shot to start 2013 as the starter - wouldn't be surprised to see Alex Smith starting somewhere else next year (Kansas City, Philadelphia, NY Jets are possibilities IMO). Time will tell, but I believe Week 11 was the start of Kaepernick as the San Franchise QB.
Week 12 Preview
One reason I think Smith will start if he is healthy is because the Niners will be heading to N'Orleans to face an upstart Saints squad that is heating up at the right time (won 5 of their last 6). It'd be a lot to ask a young QB like Kaepernick to deal with the daunting environment that the Superdome presents.
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| Kyle Williams in a moment of thought/prayer before the game. |
When I projected this game a few weeks ago, I projected this game as a likely loss for the Niners, but now that I thought about it, I give the edge to the Niners (regardless of QB). The Saints' defense remains a work-in-progress (462 yards allowed/game is by far the worst in the league) while the 49ers allow almost 200 yards (two football fields) less at 277 yards/game.
I expect the 49ers to be able to move the ball however they want to. The Saints' best chance of winning (as always) is to air it out with Drew Brees at a high rate and hope the defense has an NFL-average type of defensive effort. I think the Niners' strong line will be able to contain the Saints front and get the holes for Gore and Hunter as they have all year.
If Hunter wasn't behind Gore right now, I believe we'd be talking about him the way we're talking about C.J. Spiller's impact on the Bills.
I'll say the Niners take this one (regardless of QB) 27-24.
I can't wait...to see what the stadium in Santa Clara will look like. I've been to Candlestick three times in my life (all in the past four seasons), and while I've enjoyed Niners' victories each time, the stadium was nothing special. It's in the middle of nowhere in a crappy neighborhood. While it won't be in the city limits anymore, that's ok. From what I've seen of the stadium, it looks like it will be quite the modern masterpiece. I hope to see it in the next five years, hopefully during/after a season in which we will have won another ring.
Monday, November 12, 2012
Rams-Niners Recap
Well ladies and gentleman, it happened. Colin Kaepernick got in to the football game for a significant period of time and showed what he had to offer. He was good, but not very good. I'd say he was like Alex Smith circa-2008 good. He did enough though to keep us from losing, but not enough for us to win. If there is ever any indication of how his day went it was when there was a wide open open Kyle Williams streaking down the middle of the field and your favorite guy, Kaep, checked it down for no gain. Sure, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt that he was over there on the sidelines talking to his boy's when they made the call to put him in the game. He also got little to no reps with the first team, so that added to his awkwardness. If he gets a full week with the first team and Alex can't go I know he'll do better, but for his first significant amount of playing time, I'll give him a C+.
As for the rest of the team, how did we not lose yesterday. It really looked like from the first series the Ram's wanted to win the game and then at about the 8 minute mark of the 4th Quarter they called a team meeting and said, "Guys, we can not win this game. We must at all costs lose." That is what they did. Fumble a punt return, delay of game on the game winning field goal try and oh the idiotic lineman who didn't report as an eligible receiver penalty. They were the best team on the field yesterday in more ways then 1. They were the best NFL football team and the best at giving away a game. Unfortunately for them, the Niners didn't wake up enough from their post-election slumber to win the game.
I consider this a loss, even though it shows up as a tie in the standings. With the three losses they have 2 come against teams that at that stage of the season they should have rolled over. Wake up guys and play like Noooo-BODY's got it better then us!
As for the rest of the team, how did we not lose yesterday. It really looked like from the first series the Ram's wanted to win the game and then at about the 8 minute mark of the 4th Quarter they called a team meeting and said, "Guys, we can not win this game. We must at all costs lose." That is what they did. Fumble a punt return, delay of game on the game winning field goal try and oh the idiotic lineman who didn't report as an eligible receiver penalty. They were the best team on the field yesterday in more ways then 1. They were the best NFL football team and the best at giving away a game. Unfortunately for them, the Niners didn't wake up enough from their post-election slumber to win the game.
I consider this a loss, even though it shows up as a tie in the standings. With the three losses they have 2 come against teams that at that stage of the season they should have rolled over. Wake up guys and play like Noooo-BODY's got it better then us!
Sunday, November 11, 2012
A Look Ahead to Rest of 2012 and Playoff Projected Seed
The old cliche of players saying "one game at a time" is fine and dandy for them, but for us football hungry folks, it's fun to look ahead to see what lies ahead on the horizon.
The Niners have had another impressive start to 2012, even more so than 2011. And yet, last year, they were 7-1 at this point. I really like the balance a lot better this year than last, although I think we'll be in trouble if we fall behind in games by a touchdown or more (and yes, I don't trust Alex Smith in those spots).
Here's a list of box scores where Alex Smith has been behind center for a comeback of more than 7 points:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200512240ram.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200601010sfo.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200612310den.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201110020phi.htm
Out of these games, only one is from the past five years, which happens to be the only one where Alex really did anything, when he helped lead a comeback after trailing by 23-3 to the Eagles only to win 24-23. If the Niners fall behind early in games (which hasn't happened much thanks to our defense), I worry about their ability to come back, especially if the team abandons the run like they did against the Giants.
I'm just hoping the Niners can win the same way they have this year (solid running/run blocking, short routes for Alex Smith to throw, and especially the shutdown D). If the D slips one game and falls behind 10-0/14-0, I will be worried about Alex if they're forced to throw their way out of the deficit.
Here's a short synopsis of the remaining games and what I am projecting from each:
Week 10: vs. St. Louis - This is a better St. Louis squad than what we faced last year, mainly due to the addition of Jeff Fisher as coach. I think he has the team prepared for this game, but the Niners should win this one 20-10.
Week 11: vs. Chicago - The end of a 5 of 6 stretch at home, arguably the best NFC match-up to date. I'm hoping Chicago gets softened up by Houston's defensive line. If the Bears can't force turnovers (which I don't think they will), I believe the Niners take this game under the lights by double digits - 27-14
Week 12: at New Orleans - I worry about this one more than Chicago. (1) Revenge game for New Orleans - Payton hasn't coached since that playoff loss; (2) Potent offense; (3) Short Week. I believe the Saints will take this one, and it'll be a high scoring affair - 31-27
Week 13: at St. Louis - I'd be mildly surprised if St. Louis took this one, especially if my project of a loss to the Saints holds true - since the 49ers under Harbaugh respond amazing after a loss. I'll say 24-9 SF.
Week 14: Miami - Who would have thought that this could be a competitive game entering the year, especially with how the Dolphins played in the pre-season? It'll be interesting to see if Miami can avoid the fate of other hot start teams (Arizona, Minnesota) or if this will just be the same story of a team over-achieving to start the year only to fade at the end. I'll give this one to SF 23-13
Week 15: at New England - This has potential to be one of the better cross-conference games this year (like this week's Chicago/Houston game). New England plays Houston the week before. Great coaching match-up between Harbaugh and Belichick. San Fran has proved it can beat a great team on the road this year (GB), but I think NE squeaks this one out 27-23.
Week 16: at Seattle - The Niners last road game could also end up being their most important, especially if a chance to clinch the division is on the line (if my projections are right, San Fran would be 10-4 at this point). Seattle could be about 8-6 at this point (but actually, I think we'd have the better division record even if we lost this game - which would be the second tiebreaker after head-to-head). Seattle is a tough place to play. We squeaked out a win last year, and like mentioned before, have been great after losses. However, I believe this may be the first time w/ consecutive losses for the Niners in the Harbaugh era - Seattle 20-17
Week 17: vs. Arizona - Arizona will likely just be looking to play spoiler at this point - a far cry from their 4-0 start (which most folks had an idea was somewhat fraudulent). I don't see San Fran losing three straight. If they haven't clinched the division by now, they will in Week 17. San Fran 31, Arizona 10
We'll see how my projections go. If I'm right on all of these (highly unlikely), the Niners will be 11-5 and likely looking at a #2 or #3 seed in the playoffs. Compared to my 9-7 projection and #4 seed, I'd say that my predictions have some faults to them.
Predicted seeds (and records) in NFC:
1. Atlanta (14-2)
2. Green Bay (I believe they will overtake the Bears) (12-4)
3. San Fran (11-5)
4. New York Giants (10-6)
5. Chicago (11-5)
6. Seattle (10-6)
If this happens, we're looking at a potential division game in the playoffs - Seattle at San Fran. Seattle has two of the best corners in the league (up there w/ Chicago). This would be a bloody playoff game.
If you have differing thoughts, please let me know.
The Niners have had another impressive start to 2012, even more so than 2011. And yet, last year, they were 7-1 at this point. I really like the balance a lot better this year than last, although I think we'll be in trouble if we fall behind in games by a touchdown or more (and yes, I don't trust Alex Smith in those spots).
Here's a list of box scores where Alex Smith has been behind center for a comeback of more than 7 points:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200512240ram.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200601010sfo.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200612310den.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201110020phi.htm
Out of these games, only one is from the past five years, which happens to be the only one where Alex really did anything, when he helped lead a comeback after trailing by 23-3 to the Eagles only to win 24-23. If the Niners fall behind early in games (which hasn't happened much thanks to our defense), I worry about their ability to come back, especially if the team abandons the run like they did against the Giants.
I'm just hoping the Niners can win the same way they have this year (solid running/run blocking, short routes for Alex Smith to throw, and especially the shutdown D). If the D slips one game and falls behind 10-0/14-0, I will be worried about Alex if they're forced to throw their way out of the deficit.
Here's a short synopsis of the remaining games and what I am projecting from each:
Week 10: vs. St. Louis - This is a better St. Louis squad than what we faced last year, mainly due to the addition of Jeff Fisher as coach. I think he has the team prepared for this game, but the Niners should win this one 20-10.
Week 11: vs. Chicago - The end of a 5 of 6 stretch at home, arguably the best NFC match-up to date. I'm hoping Chicago gets softened up by Houston's defensive line. If the Bears can't force turnovers (which I don't think they will), I believe the Niners take this game under the lights by double digits - 27-14
Week 12: at New Orleans - I worry about this one more than Chicago. (1) Revenge game for New Orleans - Payton hasn't coached since that playoff loss; (2) Potent offense; (3) Short Week. I believe the Saints will take this one, and it'll be a high scoring affair - 31-27
Week 13: at St. Louis - I'd be mildly surprised if St. Louis took this one, especially if my project of a loss to the Saints holds true - since the 49ers under Harbaugh respond amazing after a loss. I'll say 24-9 SF.
Week 14: Miami - Who would have thought that this could be a competitive game entering the year, especially with how the Dolphins played in the pre-season? It'll be interesting to see if Miami can avoid the fate of other hot start teams (Arizona, Minnesota) or if this will just be the same story of a team over-achieving to start the year only to fade at the end. I'll give this one to SF 23-13
Week 15: at New England - This has potential to be one of the better cross-conference games this year (like this week's Chicago/Houston game). New England plays Houston the week before. Great coaching match-up between Harbaugh and Belichick. San Fran has proved it can beat a great team on the road this year (GB), but I think NE squeaks this one out 27-23.
Week 16: at Seattle - The Niners last road game could also end up being their most important, especially if a chance to clinch the division is on the line (if my projections are right, San Fran would be 10-4 at this point). Seattle could be about 8-6 at this point (but actually, I think we'd have the better division record even if we lost this game - which would be the second tiebreaker after head-to-head). Seattle is a tough place to play. We squeaked out a win last year, and like mentioned before, have been great after losses. However, I believe this may be the first time w/ consecutive losses for the Niners in the Harbaugh era - Seattle 20-17
Week 17: vs. Arizona - Arizona will likely just be looking to play spoiler at this point - a far cry from their 4-0 start (which most folks had an idea was somewhat fraudulent). I don't see San Fran losing three straight. If they haven't clinched the division by now, they will in Week 17. San Fran 31, Arizona 10
We'll see how my projections go. If I'm right on all of these (highly unlikely), the Niners will be 11-5 and likely looking at a #2 or #3 seed in the playoffs. Compared to my 9-7 projection and #4 seed, I'd say that my predictions have some faults to them.
Predicted seeds (and records) in NFC:
1. Atlanta (14-2)
2. Green Bay (I believe they will overtake the Bears) (12-4)
3. San Fran (11-5)
4. New York Giants (10-6)
5. Chicago (11-5)
6. Seattle (10-6)
If this happens, we're looking at a potential division game in the playoffs - Seattle at San Fran. Seattle has two of the best corners in the league (up there w/ Chicago). This would be a bloody playoff game.
If you have differing thoughts, please let me know.
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
1st Half Re-Cap
Well Faithful, we've made it through the first half and after last night's game I'm feeling pretty good about where this team is.
It's almost like you can break the first half into 2 halves, or quarters if you will. The first quarter would be described as dominant with convincing wins all over the place. The second quarter would be described as difficult with very difficult games.
The wins were over pre-season, potential playoff teams: Green Bay and Detroit. The Green Bay game, in my opinion is the best win of the first half. This was the one match up everyone wanted to see last year and with it being week 1 each team had the opportunity to pull out all the stops. As strong as the niners looked in this game, they looked as bad in the loss against the Giants. I expected the Niners to win this game, but never did I expect the team to look so beaten. The last two years has had our team in a position to win in at least one phase of the game, but this one was a 0-3 skunking by the Giants.
Given that there have been high's and low's for this team I still have high expectations for this group. Giving up 7 yards rushing yesterday and only 4 TD's in the last 5 games combined has to show the defense is primed for a strong second half. The offense is a work in progress, but Alex Smith looked incredible last night. 18-19 for 232 yards and 3 TD's is the kind of performance that will bring a trophy to the New Title town!
I see the second half producing a 7-1 record with the lone loss coming at home to the Bears. That's a team that resembles the Niners and will make it difficult for them to play like they want.
13-3 is how they finish up and they should go in as the #3 seed. Atlanta 1, Chicago 2.
First Half MVP: Frank Gore. His running has been the key to the offense.
First Half LVP: Brandon Jacobs. Hasnt suited up once and has been healthy the last few weeks.
It's almost like you can break the first half into 2 halves, or quarters if you will. The first quarter would be described as dominant with convincing wins all over the place. The second quarter would be described as difficult with very difficult games.
The wins were over pre-season, potential playoff teams: Green Bay and Detroit. The Green Bay game, in my opinion is the best win of the first half. This was the one match up everyone wanted to see last year and with it being week 1 each team had the opportunity to pull out all the stops. As strong as the niners looked in this game, they looked as bad in the loss against the Giants. I expected the Niners to win this game, but never did I expect the team to look so beaten. The last two years has had our team in a position to win in at least one phase of the game, but this one was a 0-3 skunking by the Giants.
Given that there have been high's and low's for this team I still have high expectations for this group. Giving up 7 yards rushing yesterday and only 4 TD's in the last 5 games combined has to show the defense is primed for a strong second half. The offense is a work in progress, but Alex Smith looked incredible last night. 18-19 for 232 yards and 3 TD's is the kind of performance that will bring a trophy to the New Title town!
I see the second half producing a 7-1 record with the lone loss coming at home to the Bears. That's a team that resembles the Niners and will make it difficult for them to play like they want.
13-3 is how they finish up and they should go in as the #3 seed. Atlanta 1, Chicago 2.
First Half MVP: Frank Gore. His running has been the key to the offense.
First Half LVP: Brandon Jacobs. Hasnt suited up once and has been healthy the last few weeks.
Monday, October 29, 2012
New Stadium
http://espn.go.com/blog/playbook/tech/post/_/id/2757/49ers-new-stadium-aims-to-be-smartest
Friday, October 26, 2012
Alex Smith
Hello Faithful,
I'd like to present a counter to Nick's lovey dovey Alex Smith post. While I certainly can understand Nick's mush (man crush) on Alex, I have a much different perspective. Now in his 8th season, I think we have seen everything Alex has to offer. Here is my assessment. Alex is a starting quality QB in the NFL. Having said that, he barely cracks that label, and should not be considered any higher than a top 25, maybe a top 20 qb in the league. His arm strength, pocket presence, ability to make the 3rd 4th and 5th reads are below average. He makes up for it with a marginal level of athletic ability, an ability to make smart check downs, and find playmakers often enough to warrant remaining a starter. Consider this: Randy Moss has 12 receptions for 188 yards on the season. He has been targeted 21 times.....how is a guy like Moss targeted 21 times for a TOTAL of 188 yards?! That's mind boggling. It's because Alex doesn't see him often enough, and when he does, he doesn't get him the ball in time. Moss has looked very good this year, whether or not he gets the ball actually thrown to him. Everything from route running to blocking has been better than expected. He is a HUGE target. Alex simply cannot take advantage of his skill sets.
Now, let's remember we have Crabtree, who catches every high pass Alex throws (there are a lot of them) and is one of the better over the middle/slot threats in the game. We also have VD- the most athletically gifted TE maybe outside of Tony Gonzalez to ever play the game. We have several drafts of 1st round picks on our line who are constantly getting attention for mauling D lines (the ground game results prove this). We have Manningham, who is coming on very strong and always racks up extra yards when he gets a ball thrown his way.
How is Alex continuing to put up clunkers like he has 3 of the last 4 weeks? The level of QB play against inferior opponents (Vikes, Giants and Seahawks) is just unacceptable. He had an entire offseason to prepare for this year, and yet there are times he is still the same guy getting booed off the field in favor of DAVID CARR.
Now, the problem is, we are uncertain of what turning over the reins to Kap would really look like. We do know this: he has a rocket for an arm, has had time to absorb the offense, and is an athletic freak with quasi RG3 abilities running the football. Looking at what Washington has done with a rookie QB, and what Carolina did last year, the argument against Kap is harder to make. I think the next several weeks are critical for Alex. If he continues to play poorly, it gets very hard not to give Kap a shot at a full game to see what he can do. I do expect Alex to play better against the Cardinals given the time between Thursday and Monday's game....but I am more interested to see what he does over the course of the next 3-4 games.
Let the debate continue...
GO NINERS!
I'd like to present a counter to Nick's lovey dovey Alex Smith post. While I certainly can understand Nick's mush (man crush) on Alex, I have a much different perspective. Now in his 8th season, I think we have seen everything Alex has to offer. Here is my assessment. Alex is a starting quality QB in the NFL. Having said that, he barely cracks that label, and should not be considered any higher than a top 25, maybe a top 20 qb in the league. His arm strength, pocket presence, ability to make the 3rd 4th and 5th reads are below average. He makes up for it with a marginal level of athletic ability, an ability to make smart check downs, and find playmakers often enough to warrant remaining a starter. Consider this: Randy Moss has 12 receptions for 188 yards on the season. He has been targeted 21 times.....how is a guy like Moss targeted 21 times for a TOTAL of 188 yards?! That's mind boggling. It's because Alex doesn't see him often enough, and when he does, he doesn't get him the ball in time. Moss has looked very good this year, whether or not he gets the ball actually thrown to him. Everything from route running to blocking has been better than expected. He is a HUGE target. Alex simply cannot take advantage of his skill sets.
Now, let's remember we have Crabtree, who catches every high pass Alex throws (there are a lot of them) and is one of the better over the middle/slot threats in the game. We also have VD- the most athletically gifted TE maybe outside of Tony Gonzalez to ever play the game. We have several drafts of 1st round picks on our line who are constantly getting attention for mauling D lines (the ground game results prove this). We have Manningham, who is coming on very strong and always racks up extra yards when he gets a ball thrown his way.
How is Alex continuing to put up clunkers like he has 3 of the last 4 weeks? The level of QB play against inferior opponents (Vikes, Giants and Seahawks) is just unacceptable. He had an entire offseason to prepare for this year, and yet there are times he is still the same guy getting booed off the field in favor of DAVID CARR.
Now, the problem is, we are uncertain of what turning over the reins to Kap would really look like. We do know this: he has a rocket for an arm, has had time to absorb the offense, and is an athletic freak with quasi RG3 abilities running the football. Looking at what Washington has done with a rookie QB, and what Carolina did last year, the argument against Kap is harder to make. I think the next several weeks are critical for Alex. If he continues to play poorly, it gets very hard not to give Kap a shot at a full game to see what he can do. I do expect Alex to play better against the Cardinals given the time between Thursday and Monday's game....but I am more interested to see what he does over the course of the next 3-4 games.
Let the debate continue...
GO NINERS!
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
I'm Back!!
Good Morning Fans!! It's been a couple weeks since my last post, but now's the time to make a strong return. The niners are coming off a less then epic 2 games. One where they were completely dominated and one that they looked like they were out of sync. I know that the game planning had to suffer going into a short week and a strong defense in Seattle, but I didn't expect that type of performance by Alex.
Let me set my personal record straight on Alex Smith. I like him. He's good enough to get victories for this team and he's proven it. He's 1-1 in big games, which isn't a big enough sample size for us to truly judge him. Once he's had consistency, he's done well. He's been very good this year, sans, the Seahawks and Giants games. I definitely think there's a correlation between his struggles and the offensive coordinator trying to mix in Kaepernick more. Who would have thought this phrase would enter the NFL vernacular, but he needs to be the "every down Quarterback." This "Wild-Kaep" thing is cute, but that's not the niners game. They need to put the ball in Gore/Hunter/Davis/Crabtree's hands. Those are the guys that are going to win this team games.
That being said, going into our 2nd of 3 consecutive conference games on Monday night, I'm thinking that I'll see the 49ers of old. Smith getting good pockets to throw from. Gore running the ball well. The receivers getting their yards. Oh and that Defense dominating! I see this being a very complete team effort and ultimately a win.
Niners 24 Cards 13
Let me set my personal record straight on Alex Smith. I like him. He's good enough to get victories for this team and he's proven it. He's 1-1 in big games, which isn't a big enough sample size for us to truly judge him. Once he's had consistency, he's done well. He's been very good this year, sans, the Seahawks and Giants games. I definitely think there's a correlation between his struggles and the offensive coordinator trying to mix in Kaepernick more. Who would have thought this phrase would enter the NFL vernacular, but he needs to be the "every down Quarterback." This "Wild-Kaep" thing is cute, but that's not the niners game. They need to put the ball in Gore/Hunter/Davis/Crabtree's hands. Those are the guys that are going to win this team games.
That being said, going into our 2nd of 3 consecutive conference games on Monday night, I'm thinking that I'll see the 49ers of old. Smith getting good pockets to throw from. Gore running the ball well. The receivers getting their yards. Oh and that Defense dominating! I see this being a very complete team effort and ultimately a win.
Niners 24 Cards 13
Steal from the Rich, Give it to the Gore (49ers thoughts entering Week 8)
Sorry about the slacking to all of our loyal readers. The Giants game sapped some energy out of me and the Seahawks game showed Niner Nation a continuation of the ugly NYG loss with the inconsistent play of Alex Smith. I wasn't really inspired to write after that game - I was just elated San Fran held onto that win despite looking piss poor in the passing game. Our defense was stellar, and the Seahawks dropped every good Russell Wilson pass thrown that night.
What Niners fans last week saw was their coach making sure he didn't lose his starting quarterback mentally. By having him on the field for every offensive sequence (save one play), Harbaugh made sure that Smith wouldn't lose his confidence. Unlike previous games where we saw Colin Kaepernick get a decent share of snaps, the backup QB from Nevada sat on the bench for all but one play (a one-yard loss) as he watched the game with the rest of America.
The last two games have shown a regression in Alex from what we saw in 2011 and the start of 2012. I am still in the camp that Kaep will get his chance to start sooner rather than later - maybe towards the end of the season, more likely to start 2013. In the business of NFL, you don't just draft a guy with a high pick (Kaep was a 2nd rounder in 2011) and not give him a chance to play right away, at least not normally (Aaron Rodgers an exception). Main difference though - Rodgers was behind a Hall-of-Fame QB on the depth chart (Favre) whereas Kaep is behind Smith, a better QB in the past year and a half, but overall, somewhat of a disappointment as a #1 pick years ago.
Steal from the rich, and give it to the Gore. Frank Gore that is. Those who doubted whether his best days were behind him (i.e. me) are looking like complete fools. Sure, some of that has to do with the amazing run blocking displayed by the offensive line. But gotta give credit where credit is due. Gore is running like he did in the earlier stages of his career. And here I thought Kendall Hunter would take the proverbial passing of the running back torch from him this year. Might have to wait a year or two for that at this pace. Hunter may get his chance to start next Monday Night though if Gore's rib injury keeps him sidelined.
A View from Vegas shows that the Niners are still among the top 5 most likely teams to win the Super Bowl. Their 8/1 odds place them fourth behind Houston (21/4), New England (13/2) & Green Bay (29/4). And for the first time all year, San Fran has the division lead all to themselves - thanks to the combination of their win against Seattle and Arizona's demise against the Vikings. When everything is settled in Week 8, the Niners could possibly be in a three-way tie for the division lead again, or they could possibly be up two games on the rest of the division. Speaking of which...
A Big Divisional Showdown Next Monday Night when the 5-2 Niners face the 4-3 Cardinals, who have lost their last three after starting the year off on a little tear. It's easy to look at their last three games and say the Cardinals likely peaked at the beginning of the year - never a good thing for a football team to do. However, I've watched football long enough to know that many times, just when you start doubting a team, just when you think you'll be able to beat the crap out of your next opponent who looked like shit the previous couple weeks, you'll see a spirited effort. Especially on a prime-time stage. Many football fans will remember one of the last times the Cardinals were large underdogs on a Monday Night game, they destroyed the Chicago Bears in the first half of play only to blow their lead in miraculous fashion, prompting the infamous Dennis Green "Crown Their Ass" tirade.
Never count out a dog when he's down. I believe the Cardinals, despite their offensive woes, will find a way to keep this week competitive. Remember, this is the same team that has made strong offensive teams like New England and Philadelphia look like Division III programs earlier this season. If I bet the game next week (I likely will, let's not kid ourselves), I'd likely lean on taking Arizona +6.5. I'm expecting this game to be like a 23-20 score one way or the other.
Enjoy the next week of games. My name is Brian Bolek, and I approve this message.
What Niners fans last week saw was their coach making sure he didn't lose his starting quarterback mentally. By having him on the field for every offensive sequence (save one play), Harbaugh made sure that Smith wouldn't lose his confidence. Unlike previous games where we saw Colin Kaepernick get a decent share of snaps, the backup QB from Nevada sat on the bench for all but one play (a one-yard loss) as he watched the game with the rest of America.
The last two games have shown a regression in Alex from what we saw in 2011 and the start of 2012. I am still in the camp that Kaep will get his chance to start sooner rather than later - maybe towards the end of the season, more likely to start 2013. In the business of NFL, you don't just draft a guy with a high pick (Kaep was a 2nd rounder in 2011) and not give him a chance to play right away, at least not normally (Aaron Rodgers an exception). Main difference though - Rodgers was behind a Hall-of-Fame QB on the depth chart (Favre) whereas Kaep is behind Smith, a better QB in the past year and a half, but overall, somewhat of a disappointment as a #1 pick years ago.
Steal from the rich, and give it to the Gore. Frank Gore that is. Those who doubted whether his best days were behind him (i.e. me) are looking like complete fools. Sure, some of that has to do with the amazing run blocking displayed by the offensive line. But gotta give credit where credit is due. Gore is running like he did in the earlier stages of his career. And here I thought Kendall Hunter would take the proverbial passing of the running back torch from him this year. Might have to wait a year or two for that at this pace. Hunter may get his chance to start next Monday Night though if Gore's rib injury keeps him sidelined.
A View from Vegas shows that the Niners are still among the top 5 most likely teams to win the Super Bowl. Their 8/1 odds place them fourth behind Houston (21/4), New England (13/2) & Green Bay (29/4). And for the first time all year, San Fran has the division lead all to themselves - thanks to the combination of their win against Seattle and Arizona's demise against the Vikings. When everything is settled in Week 8, the Niners could possibly be in a three-way tie for the division lead again, or they could possibly be up two games on the rest of the division. Speaking of which...
A Big Divisional Showdown Next Monday Night when the 5-2 Niners face the 4-3 Cardinals, who have lost their last three after starting the year off on a little tear. It's easy to look at their last three games and say the Cardinals likely peaked at the beginning of the year - never a good thing for a football team to do. However, I've watched football long enough to know that many times, just when you start doubting a team, just when you think you'll be able to beat the crap out of your next opponent who looked like shit the previous couple weeks, you'll see a spirited effort. Especially on a prime-time stage. Many football fans will remember one of the last times the Cardinals were large underdogs on a Monday Night game, they destroyed the Chicago Bears in the first half of play only to blow their lead in miraculous fashion, prompting the infamous Dennis Green "Crown Their Ass" tirade.
Never count out a dog when he's down. I believe the Cardinals, despite their offensive woes, will find a way to keep this week competitive. Remember, this is the same team that has made strong offensive teams like New England and Philadelphia look like Division III programs earlier this season. If I bet the game next week (I likely will, let's not kid ourselves), I'd likely lean on taking Arizona +6.5. I'm expecting this game to be like a 23-20 score one way or the other.
Enjoy the next week of games. My name is Brian Bolek, and I approve this message.
Tuesday, October 9, 2012
Giant Steps - Week 5 Thoughts and Look Ahead to Week 6
What else do you need to say about a game where your favorite team gains 600+ yards, totaling 300+ each through the ground game and passing game (a first in NFL history), while your team allows only 3 points?
I felt guilty for not writing this blog on Sunday night when I normally do, but an ass-beating that bad doesn't really require much analysis or thought.
San Fran looked like a Super Bowl caliber team - the Bills looked like they belonged in Canada (and I don't mean as Toronto's NFL team like Goodell wants them to be - I mean as a Canadian football team like the Roughriders).
As great as they've looked the last 2 weeks, it's only as good as next week looks. An NFC Championship rematch with the New York Giants awaits.
The Vegas perspective: Niners opened as a six-point favorite, but have been bet down to 4.5. I think part of it is how well the Giants have played on the road. I also think it's partly due to how the Niners might be due for a let-down (after all, how can a team maintain a dominance displayed in a two-game stretch of the Jets and Bills where we win by a combined 79-3?).
Niners are still second favorites to win the Super Bowl behind the Texans, although in my mind I would be most worried about the Patriots, especially if they maintain their well-rounded running and passing attack. With Steven Ridley and Brandon Bolden, this is as good of a running attack as New England has had in a long time. Brady with a legit running game is a scary thought.
I just hope the Niners can continue expanding the passing game, perhaps keeping Kaep involved in the game plan for 5-10 plays per game, and maintain their solid offense. Their defense is something I'll never question - it's the offense I worry about. This year, they haven't really given much for us to worry about, but I think most of us fans want to see a downfield passing game that can make the running game even more dangerous.
My prediction for Week 6 - Niners win a close game and hold off the Giants 27-24. I just hope "revenge" doesn't get the best of the Niners. As much as last year's ending stung, you still have to forget about it and worry about the task at hand and not lose focus on the now.
Other NFC West predictions:
Arizona 20, Buffalo 17
Miami 24, St Louis 20
Seattle 27, New England 24
I felt guilty for not writing this blog on Sunday night when I normally do, but an ass-beating that bad doesn't really require much analysis or thought.
San Fran looked like a Super Bowl caliber team - the Bills looked like they belonged in Canada (and I don't mean as Toronto's NFL team like Goodell wants them to be - I mean as a Canadian football team like the Roughriders).
As great as they've looked the last 2 weeks, it's only as good as next week looks. An NFC Championship rematch with the New York Giants awaits.
The Vegas perspective: Niners opened as a six-point favorite, but have been bet down to 4.5. I think part of it is how well the Giants have played on the road. I also think it's partly due to how the Niners might be due for a let-down (after all, how can a team maintain a dominance displayed in a two-game stretch of the Jets and Bills where we win by a combined 79-3?).
Niners are still second favorites to win the Super Bowl behind the Texans, although in my mind I would be most worried about the Patriots, especially if they maintain their well-rounded running and passing attack. With Steven Ridley and Brandon Bolden, this is as good of a running attack as New England has had in a long time. Brady with a legit running game is a scary thought.
I just hope the Niners can continue expanding the passing game, perhaps keeping Kaep involved in the game plan for 5-10 plays per game, and maintain their solid offense. Their defense is something I'll never question - it's the offense I worry about. This year, they haven't really given much for us to worry about, but I think most of us fans want to see a downfield passing game that can make the running game even more dangerous.
My prediction for Week 6 - Niners win a close game and hold off the Giants 27-24. I just hope "revenge" doesn't get the best of the Niners. As much as last year's ending stung, you still have to forget about it and worry about the task at hand and not lose focus on the now.
Other NFC West predictions:
Arizona 20, Buffalo 17
Miami 24, St Louis 20
Seattle 27, New England 24
Monday, October 8, 2012
Perspective
Good Morning Fans!
I know it's been a couple weeks since I last blogged, but I needed some time to recover from that horrific Vikes loss. Thankfully the Vikings have played well since so I am thinking maybe they're better then I thought they were, therefore making their win over us more palatable. None the less, that loss appears to been the wake up slap across the face we needed.
Over the last two weeks, no TD's, 1 FG and an offense that is clicking. We are a running team and we're proving it with almost every guy on our team carrying the ball effectively. Our identity is to pound the ball, but yesterday we decided it was time to quiet the media and fan base and throw the ball around the field. Alex could easily have had 400 yards passing if there weren't some penalties.
Let me say, that our last two opponents are not playoff teams. We will have a serious test the next three weeks. This is where I think we will separate ourselves. 2 division games and a "revenge" game going into the bye week determine our identity. It's been easy to go up and down the field on the last two New York teams, but the Giants are better. We should win this game,but it's going to be a lot more difficult.
I know it's been a couple weeks since I last blogged, but I needed some time to recover from that horrific Vikes loss. Thankfully the Vikings have played well since so I am thinking maybe they're better then I thought they were, therefore making their win over us more palatable. None the less, that loss appears to been the wake up slap across the face we needed.
Over the last two weeks, no TD's, 1 FG and an offense that is clicking. We are a running team and we're proving it with almost every guy on our team carrying the ball effectively. Our identity is to pound the ball, but yesterday we decided it was time to quiet the media and fan base and throw the ball around the field. Alex could easily have had 400 yards passing if there weren't some penalties.
Let me say, that our last two opponents are not playoff teams. We will have a serious test the next three weeks. This is where I think we will separate ourselves. 2 division games and a "revenge" game going into the bye week determine our identity. It's been easy to go up and down the field on the last two New York teams, but the Giants are better. We should win this game,but it's going to be a lot more difficult.
Tuesday, October 2, 2012
Vegas Perspective Entering Week 5
The Niners' impressive victory over the Jets vaulted them into the second favorite to win the Super Bowl at 6/1, just behind the Houston Texans' chances at +465. Rounding out the Top 5 are New England (7/1), Atlanta (15/2) and Green Bay (8/1).
For those Bears friends of mine, they moved up to 20/1 after their impressive win on Monday Night against the Cowboys.
After starting the season with three out of four games on the road, San Fran now gets to enjoy home cooking for five out of their next six, starting with the Bills on Sunday. Before that, we get a chance to see if the Cardinals can move to 5-0 as they travel to St. Louis, who definitely look better than they did last year.
I expect the Rams to take care of business against Arizona in a defensive battle. So far, the NFC West is the best division record-wise in the NFL, sporting a 11-5 record (9-3 if you don't include games played in the division where the wins/losses cancel out). Every team has defended its home field through the first four weeks, going undefeated in eight combined home games.
I say it goes to nine - Rams take care of the Cardinals 20-16. The short turnaround has a history of benefiting the home team, who usually has a home game the week before and doesn't need to worry about travelling.
This time next week, I am hoping we see the standings below:
San Fran 4-1
Arizona 4-1
St. Louis 3-2
Seattle 2-3
Good night and go Niners!
For those Bears friends of mine, they moved up to 20/1 after their impressive win on Monday Night against the Cowboys.
After starting the season with three out of four games on the road, San Fran now gets to enjoy home cooking for five out of their next six, starting with the Bills on Sunday. Before that, we get a chance to see if the Cardinals can move to 5-0 as they travel to St. Louis, who definitely look better than they did last year.
I expect the Rams to take care of business against Arizona in a defensive battle. So far, the NFC West is the best division record-wise in the NFL, sporting a 11-5 record (9-3 if you don't include games played in the division where the wins/losses cancel out). Every team has defended its home field through the first four weeks, going undefeated in eight combined home games.
I say it goes to nine - Rams take care of the Cardinals 20-16. The short turnaround has a history of benefiting the home team, who usually has a home game the week before and doesn't need to worry about travelling.
This time next week, I am hoping we see the standings below:
San Fran 4-1
Arizona 4-1
St. Louis 3-2
Seattle 2-3
Good night and go Niners!
Monday, October 1, 2012
Week 4 Recap, Fun Niner Facts and Thoughts on Week 5
I'm not sure why, but I was more worried about Week 3 against the Vikings (who are in the process of legitimizing themselves and their Week 3 win against San Fran) than I was this week with the Jets.
Maybe it had to do with how damn impressive we looked in the first two weeks and I was expecting a Week 3 letdown (but obviously, not to the level that we seemed to have it last week).
Or maybe it had to do with the Darrelle Revis injury, knowing that one half of the field that'd normally be shut down was now open for business.
Or maybe, just maybe, it had to do with the fact that what I've seen of the Vikings and what I had seen of the Jets showed me that the Vikings are simply a better team than the Jets. I can't believe I just typed that last sentence, but the Jets bring no rushing game to the table (Shonn Greene is a BumB with two capital Bs and will not be starting in the backfield when the end of the year comes) and have some guy from USC as a QB impersonator behind center.
A few folks that I read on a somewhat regular basis were projecting that Ponder would take a big step this year in his quarterback progression, but I really didn't buy into it until last week when he contributed to all three TDs en route to the double digit win against the 49ers. Ponder still has a ways to go and needs to shows consistency, but his brief flash of success thus far this season has been exactly what the Vikings needed to become a legitimate team.
Anywho, back to Week 4....
Handy Kaep
I know back in April 2011, I wrote a blog wondering if Colin Kaepernick would be the answer to our QB woes. When writing that, I believe I caught a severe case of pessimisticia that I contracted from my Dad when it comes to being a Debbie Downer about sports teams.
I had seen all of the QBs that the 49ers had trotted out there since Garcia left town, so naturally, my pessimisticia kicked in after the draft and I said I didn't think he'd be the answer.
Now, after seeing him succeed briefly in his role on Sunday (and all the rave reviews he got during training camp and preseason), I believe the 49ers may have found their replacement to Alex Smith. My friend Nick Tweeted me during the game about the Kaep appearance.
He's probably surprised at my comment mainly because my 2011 blog was a Debbie Downer piece about him and how he probably wouldn't work in the NFL. I can't be faulted for being critical of 49ers draft picks at that point since the past 6-8 years haven't produced much for them in the draft outside of Patrick Willis and Frank Gore.
I do believe Kaepernick will continue to see an expanded role in the offense, with a couple starts this year not out of the question. He threw one deep ball (was incomplete, but he definitely showed more arm strength in that one throw than Alex Smith has in his career. According to Pro Football Focus, entering this week, Smith had attempted only four throws for 20+ yards. Part of that may be by the design of Coach Harbaugh's offense. But the main part of it IMO is due to the fact that Smith just can't throw it deep.
I am a big fan of what Harbaugh has done in maximizing the skills that Smith has (his intelligence and speed) while turning the Niners into a more balanced offense. While Smith doesn't have the arm strength, he has solid options that are good possession receivers. However, that's not always going to cut it, especially when playing from behind.
Kaepernick has a chance to take the reins from Smith in the next year and develop a nice career in the Bay Area, full of playoff appearances and perhaps a Super Bowl or two.
Captain Bounceback
Week 3 was Harbaugh's fourth regular season loss as coach of the 49ers in his first 19 games. The bounceback (34-0 thumping of the Jets) was no surprise given how the team responded to the three losses in 2011:
Week 2 - Loss to Dallas 27-24; Week 3 - Beat Cincy 14-8
Week 12 - Loss to Baltimore 16-6; Week 13 - Beat StL 26-0
Week 14 - Loss to Arizona 21-19; Week 15 - Beat Pitt 20-3
Take note of the game scores to the right. After their only losses, the Niners won by an average of 20-4, allowing no touchdowns in the week following a loss (two of those teams were playoff teams in 2011, I might add). This 34-0 thumping fits in nicely to this trend and shows me that we can count on Harbaugh getting his team focused after a disappointing loss.
Next Week - vs. Buffalo.
The Niners head back home to face the Bills for the first of three straight games at Candlestick, where they've won their last nine games, (including playoffs). The Bills looked like they may stand alone at the top of the division when they were ahead 21-7 against the Patriots towards the start of the second half, but the Bills wagon derailed as the Patriots outscored them 45-7 the rest of the way en route to the relatively easy win. Fitzpatrick started out hot but ended up negating his four touchdown passes with four picks. You just can't do that against a Brady-led team
Given the fact that the Bills just got done facing their division rival and faced such an emotional 180 during the game (going up 14 to losing by four scores), I anticipate the Bills coming out really flat and get blown out in this one. Currently, the Niners are nine point favorites w/ an over/under of 44.5. I think the Niners continue mixing Kapernick into the offense and the Niners take advantage of an average QB for the second week in a row. I think the Niners will win by three scores.
Niners 31-10.
Maybe it had to do with how damn impressive we looked in the first two weeks and I was expecting a Week 3 letdown (but obviously, not to the level that we seemed to have it last week).
Or maybe it had to do with the Darrelle Revis injury, knowing that one half of the field that'd normally be shut down was now open for business.
Or maybe, just maybe, it had to do with the fact that what I've seen of the Vikings and what I had seen of the Jets showed me that the Vikings are simply a better team than the Jets. I can't believe I just typed that last sentence, but the Jets bring no rushing game to the table (Shonn Greene is a BumB with two capital Bs and will not be starting in the backfield when the end of the year comes) and have some guy from USC as a QB impersonator behind center.
A few folks that I read on a somewhat regular basis were projecting that Ponder would take a big step this year in his quarterback progression, but I really didn't buy into it until last week when he contributed to all three TDs en route to the double digit win against the 49ers. Ponder still has a ways to go and needs to shows consistency, but his brief flash of success thus far this season has been exactly what the Vikings needed to become a legitimate team.
Anywho, back to Week 4....
Handy Kaep
I know back in April 2011, I wrote a blog wondering if Colin Kaepernick would be the answer to our QB woes. When writing that, I believe I caught a severe case of pessimisticia that I contracted from my Dad when it comes to being a Debbie Downer about sports teams.
I had seen all of the QBs that the 49ers had trotted out there since Garcia left town, so naturally, my pessimisticia kicked in after the draft and I said I didn't think he'd be the answer.
Now, after seeing him succeed briefly in his role on Sunday (and all the rave reviews he got during training camp and preseason), I believe the 49ers may have found their replacement to Alex Smith. My friend Nick Tweeted me during the game about the Kaep appearance.
He's probably surprised at my comment mainly because my 2011 blog was a Debbie Downer piece about him and how he probably wouldn't work in the NFL. I can't be faulted for being critical of 49ers draft picks at that point since the past 6-8 years haven't produced much for them in the draft outside of Patrick Willis and Frank Gore.
I do believe Kaepernick will continue to see an expanded role in the offense, with a couple starts this year not out of the question. He threw one deep ball (was incomplete, but he definitely showed more arm strength in that one throw than Alex Smith has in his career. According to Pro Football Focus, entering this week, Smith had attempted only four throws for 20+ yards. Part of that may be by the design of Coach Harbaugh's offense. But the main part of it IMO is due to the fact that Smith just can't throw it deep.
I am a big fan of what Harbaugh has done in maximizing the skills that Smith has (his intelligence and speed) while turning the Niners into a more balanced offense. While Smith doesn't have the arm strength, he has solid options that are good possession receivers. However, that's not always going to cut it, especially when playing from behind.
Kaepernick has a chance to take the reins from Smith in the next year and develop a nice career in the Bay Area, full of playoff appearances and perhaps a Super Bowl or two.
Captain Bounceback
Week 3 was Harbaugh's fourth regular season loss as coach of the 49ers in his first 19 games. The bounceback (34-0 thumping of the Jets) was no surprise given how the team responded to the three losses in 2011:
Week 2 - Loss to Dallas 27-24; Week 3 - Beat Cincy 14-8
Week 12 - Loss to Baltimore 16-6; Week 13 - Beat StL 26-0
Week 14 - Loss to Arizona 21-19; Week 15 - Beat Pitt 20-3
Take note of the game scores to the right. After their only losses, the Niners won by an average of 20-4, allowing no touchdowns in the week following a loss (two of those teams were playoff teams in 2011, I might add). This 34-0 thumping fits in nicely to this trend and shows me that we can count on Harbaugh getting his team focused after a disappointing loss.
Next Week - vs. Buffalo.
The Niners head back home to face the Bills for the first of three straight games at Candlestick, where they've won their last nine games, (including playoffs). The Bills looked like they may stand alone at the top of the division when they were ahead 21-7 against the Patriots towards the start of the second half, but the Bills wagon derailed as the Patriots outscored them 45-7 the rest of the way en route to the relatively easy win. Fitzpatrick started out hot but ended up negating his four touchdown passes with four picks. You just can't do that against a Brady-led team
Given the fact that the Bills just got done facing their division rival and faced such an emotional 180 during the game (going up 14 to losing by four scores), I anticipate the Bills coming out really flat and get blown out in this one. Currently, the Niners are nine point favorites w/ an over/under of 44.5. I think the Niners continue mixing Kapernick into the offense and the Niners take advantage of an average QB for the second week in a row. I think the Niners will win by three scores.
Niners 31-10.
Tuesday, September 25, 2012
Vegas Perspective & Week 4 Thoughts
Super Bowl Odds
The biggest jump in odds since the start of the year has been San Fran's division rival Arizona, who opened around 150/1 in the preseason and are currently 27/1 to win the Super Bowl. That's what a 3-0 start, including wins over two strong offenses (NE & Philly), will do. Dating back to Week 9 of last year, Arizona has the best record in the NFL (10-2). The only thing holding them back is an average QB, but I thought the same thing about Alex Smith last year.
Week 4 Thoughts
The Niners head to MetLife Stadium for a Week 4 match-up against the Revis-less New York Jets. Sanchez has completed about half of his passes, the running game has been quite stagnant, yet the Jets sport a 2-1 record.
I believe this will be a low-scoring, ugly game. I see a 19-17, 19-13 score, with the Niners prevailing. I believe the Niners will keep the ball on the ground way more this game around than in Week 3. The Jets have allowed 4.6 yards/carry. Look for the play action to be a big part of the game plan for San Francisco (assuming they establish the run early), especially with Revis Island not occupying one half of the field.
On the Jets side of the ball, their non-existent running game will disappear even further against a punishing SF run defense - which did not allow a rushing touchdown for the first 14 weeks of last season but allowed its first score already on a QB run last week. Sanchez doesn't scare me - and no, neither does Tebow.
The current line on the game has the Niners as a 4-point favorite, with an over/under of 40 points. I'm taking a betting hiatus, but my favorite bet would be the under here. It will be ugly, but the Niners will pull out the W.
Bolek (Hypothetical) Bet: Under 40 points.
Monday, September 24, 2012
49FF - Weak 3 Recap/Thoughts for Next Week
Entering Sunday morning, I wasn't sure if I was going to catch much (if any) of the Niners' road matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. The past few days, I've been out of town at my girlfriend's cousin's wedding. I was happy that we would be leaving at a time where I'd be able to catch at least the second half - one in which surely they'd be possessing a sizable lead and play the similar type of game they played in the first two weeks - balanced offense, suffocating defense.
As I was driving from Princeton,IL to my friend Tim's in Monee (about 100 mile drive), I was doing what all those commercials and cell phone ad campaigns tell you not to do - hitting refresh on my phone as me and Jen made our ride to watch the rest of the games and the late games. From the onset, I started to suspect that this game may not go as planned.
One of the first plays I see as I hit refresh on the ScoreTap app on my Android was an opening drive touchdown, with the Vikings scoring on a 1-yard TD pass to Kyle Rudolph. Ok, no need to worry at this point, although not the start I wanted.
Then, after the Niners booted in a field goal to start the second quarter, the Vikings increased their lead to 14-3 with a Christian Ponder touchdown run. How the hell did that happen? I figured it had to be a broken play (not a designed run), although I know Ponder has the ability to be a very athletic quarterback.
The scoring situation didn't seem to get any better - a missed field goal (which I later found out was blocked) led to the Vikings kicking one of their own to up their lead to 14 at the half.
At this point is when I got to my friend's place and started watching the game, which obviously started more promising than the first half. I was happy with the field goal to start the half, but I really thought we needed to get 6 there. We got it the very next drive, but that ended up being the last of our offense for the day.
Random Week 3 Reactions (from what I saw)
I know the team fell behind early...but I don't understand the disparity in the pass/rush attempt ratio. 38 passing plays (35 attempts + 3 times sacked) to 20 rushing plays was not the type of ball that helped us win the first two games (64 pass plays to 59 rushes). This seems to be a team that functions best when there is a balance.
No reason to panic. I know fellow 49FF blogger Nick thought this would be an easy win. I had my doubts - thinking it may be a trap game, with the Vikings treating the game as their Super Bowl. I still had the Niners winning by 10 and I still bet the Niners to cover the -6.5 spread (quite foolishly - knowing what I know about 'trap lines'). Every team (even the best) are going to lose at least 2-3 games this year. Given the Niners schedule this year, I expect a few more for sure (hopefully no more than 4-5 more). It's natural to want to panic as a fan when your team looks mortal for the first time in the short season thus far, but just look at everything that has happened so far this year. Per usual, this league is a parody-driven league. I consider this a hiccup along the way to another successful regular season.
I wish I would have watched the Arizona Cardinals game. That was one of the only late games we didn't have on in my friend's three TV setup downstairs. I was curious to see how Arizona would take on a Philly squad that has been good at moving the ball but bad at protecting it. With this in mind, I picked up the Arizona D in many of my fantasy leagues - paid off nicely I'd say. Why I wish I could have seen them:
As I was driving from Princeton,IL to my friend Tim's in Monee (about 100 mile drive), I was doing what all those commercials and cell phone ad campaigns tell you not to do - hitting refresh on my phone as me and Jen made our ride to watch the rest of the games and the late games. From the onset, I started to suspect that this game may not go as planned.
One of the first plays I see as I hit refresh on the ScoreTap app on my Android was an opening drive touchdown, with the Vikings scoring on a 1-yard TD pass to Kyle Rudolph. Ok, no need to worry at this point, although not the start I wanted.
Then, after the Niners booted in a field goal to start the second quarter, the Vikings increased their lead to 14-3 with a Christian Ponder touchdown run. How the hell did that happen? I figured it had to be a broken play (not a designed run), although I know Ponder has the ability to be a very athletic quarterback.
The scoring situation didn't seem to get any better - a missed field goal (which I later found out was blocked) led to the Vikings kicking one of their own to up their lead to 14 at the half.
At this point is when I got to my friend's place and started watching the game, which obviously started more promising than the first half. I was happy with the field goal to start the half, but I really thought we needed to get 6 there. We got it the very next drive, but that ended up being the last of our offense for the day.
Random Week 3 Reactions (from what I saw)
I know the team fell behind early...but I don't understand the disparity in the pass/rush attempt ratio. 38 passing plays (35 attempts + 3 times sacked) to 20 rushing plays was not the type of ball that helped us win the first two games (64 pass plays to 59 rushes). This seems to be a team that functions best when there is a balance.
No reason to panic. I know fellow 49FF blogger Nick thought this would be an easy win. I had my doubts - thinking it may be a trap game, with the Vikings treating the game as their Super Bowl. I still had the Niners winning by 10 and I still bet the Niners to cover the -6.5 spread (quite foolishly - knowing what I know about 'trap lines'). Every team (even the best) are going to lose at least 2-3 games this year. Given the Niners schedule this year, I expect a few more for sure (hopefully no more than 4-5 more). It's natural to want to panic as a fan when your team looks mortal for the first time in the short season thus far, but just look at everything that has happened so far this year. Per usual, this league is a parody-driven league. I consider this a hiccup along the way to another successful regular season.
I wish I would have watched the Arizona Cardinals game. That was one of the only late games we didn't have on in my friend's three TV setup downstairs. I was curious to see how Arizona would take on a Philly squad that has been good at moving the ball but bad at protecting it. With this in mind, I picked up the Arizona D in many of my fantasy leagues - paid off nicely I'd say. Why I wish I could have seen them:
- I've heard their defense talked up as an elite unit. Same with their special teams.
- I wanted to see if their squad had similar lineage to the 49ers 2011 season - where an average/slightly above average offense would be carried to the playoffs (perhaps a surprising division crown) by such a defense.
- I wanted to see if I needed to worry about them overtaking us this year for the NFC West crown.
Even though I didn't get a chance to see them, based solely on result, I feel like it is time to worry about them. A 3-0 start with a solid defense, one that can keep them in most games, one that manhandled Tom Brady and Mike Vick in back-to-back weeks...hard not to take such a team seriously. I hope I'm wrong and they pull a 2011 Bills and they tail off into the sunset after a hot start - but I'm doubting it.
Looking ahead: Week 4 (at NYJ)
The Niners catch a major break as Darrelle Revis is assumed to be lost for the season due to an ACL injury suffered in the Jets' 23-20 OT win against the Dolphins. Revis automatically shuts down half of the field and makes the elite of the elite wide receivers look like practice squad material. I'm hoping Alex Smith can bounce back and take advantage of this injury and also hoping Harbaugh dedicates more offensive plays to Gore/Hunter.
I see it being an ugly game - some kind of ugly score like 19-17 winning it. I'll say the Niners take it. I don't care how they do it - they all count the same in the standings.
:Let's get 'em next week. No one's got it better than us!
Saturday, September 22, 2012
Prediction - Week 3 Minnesota
Well since I live in Minnesota I've been "blessed" with the "honor" of listening to local sports pundits talk about this game from the opponents perspective. I'll let each and every one of you in on a secret. Those talking heads all think this is going to be a close game. I have laughed every time they've dissected this game and I am laughing right now as I see it sitting on this screen. There is, NO WAY, this is a close game. I'll tell you why.
1) Minnesota's strength is running the ball. Whether it be AP, Percy or Gerhart, they have the ability to run the ball. The last time I checked San Francisco is pretty good at stopping the run. They don't give up the big plays and you cant run the ball outside of the tackles on this defense. I expect Minnesota to continue trying to run the ball all game long, but really with no success.
With point 1 proven to be neutralized, we can now discuss my second point.
2) Minnesota will have no run game so how easy is it going to be for Dashon and Carlos to sit back there and cover the receivers. What the Niners are doing great this year is making teams one dimensional and crushing that one dimension. Ponder is the current version of Alex Smith (Schmiddy and I have discussed this and concur that he is the next Smith) and will have his worst day of the season. As improved as he is this year I don't see him having a good day tomorrow.
3) The best chance Minnesota has to get in the end zone is with their kicker, kicking field goals. He'll get plenty of chances, but you cant trade field goals for TD's. We know that first hand from last years Niners squad.
I think this game gets ugly and I think that it sets the tone for this long road trip through Youngstown, OH to next week's game at the Jets. Alex Smith gets over 300 yards passing, Moss gets 2 TD's, Davis gets another, Crabtree gets his first this year, Gore goes over 100 again and the Defense gets in the end zone.
Niners 38 Vikes 9
Who's got it better then us?
NOOOOOOOO-Bodddddyyy
1) Minnesota's strength is running the ball. Whether it be AP, Percy or Gerhart, they have the ability to run the ball. The last time I checked San Francisco is pretty good at stopping the run. They don't give up the big plays and you cant run the ball outside of the tackles on this defense. I expect Minnesota to continue trying to run the ball all game long, but really with no success.
With point 1 proven to be neutralized, we can now discuss my second point.
2) Minnesota will have no run game so how easy is it going to be for Dashon and Carlos to sit back there and cover the receivers. What the Niners are doing great this year is making teams one dimensional and crushing that one dimension. Ponder is the current version of Alex Smith (Schmiddy and I have discussed this and concur that he is the next Smith) and will have his worst day of the season. As improved as he is this year I don't see him having a good day tomorrow.
3) The best chance Minnesota has to get in the end zone is with their kicker, kicking field goals. He'll get plenty of chances, but you cant trade field goals for TD's. We know that first hand from last years Niners squad.
I think this game gets ugly and I think that it sets the tone for this long road trip through Youngstown, OH to next week's game at the Jets. Alex Smith gets over 300 yards passing, Moss gets 2 TD's, Davis gets another, Crabtree gets his first this year, Gore goes over 100 again and the Defense gets in the end zone.
Niners 38 Vikes 9
Who's got it better then us?
NOOOOOOOO-Bodddddyyy
Friday, September 21, 2012
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
Going into Week 3
So maybe I'm just feeling the effects of a dominant win last night, but I just cant get past the thought that this Niner team has what it takes to win every week.
Last year as the season progressed I kept my fingers crossed that they would do just enough to stay in the game on offense and that the D would make a stop, force a turn over or score some points for us. Not this year. I expect the D to give up under 80 yards rushing weekly and limiting any big passing plays to near non existence. I now expect the offense to move the ball up and down the field. I see a strong offensive line that is making a name for itself in protection and making holes for the running back. I see a wide receiving core that outside of a couple drops in each of the first two games have looked very strong. Crabtree has been the best and Moss/Manningham have held similar roles in each of the first two games, but Vernon Davis has been AMAZING!
The rotation of Gore & Hunter has proven to be a monster. Coming into this season I thought the Niners knew something about Gore's production declining, but little did I know that they were on to something bigger. A fresh Frank Gore has been a very good Frank Gore. I like where we're heading with this.
Lastly, can enough be enough with the "game manager" title for Alex?! He's proven his worth over the last season, playoffs and these two games. He is heading into an uncharted land of efficiency and I'm glad we have him, not Peyton.
I think we win more then the 10 games I predicted and I think we are on the verge of something special for this season.
Last year as the season progressed I kept my fingers crossed that they would do just enough to stay in the game on offense and that the D would make a stop, force a turn over or score some points for us. Not this year. I expect the D to give up under 80 yards rushing weekly and limiting any big passing plays to near non existence. I now expect the offense to move the ball up and down the field. I see a strong offensive line that is making a name for itself in protection and making holes for the running back. I see a wide receiving core that outside of a couple drops in each of the first two games have looked very strong. Crabtree has been the best and Moss/Manningham have held similar roles in each of the first two games, but Vernon Davis has been AMAZING!
The rotation of Gore & Hunter has proven to be a monster. Coming into this season I thought the Niners knew something about Gore's production declining, but little did I know that they were on to something bigger. A fresh Frank Gore has been a very good Frank Gore. I like where we're heading with this.
Lastly, can enough be enough with the "game manager" title for Alex?! He's proven his worth over the last season, playoffs and these two games. He is heading into an uncharted land of efficiency and I'm glad we have him, not Peyton.
I think we win more then the 10 games I predicted and I think we are on the verge of something special for this season.
The Vegas Perspective After Week 2/Quick Week 3 Preview
Following their second straight win to start the 2012 season, the San Francisco 49ers vaulted to the top of the Super Bowl best odds on 5dimes.eu. The Niners are now 11/2 favorites to win the Super Bowl according to the offshore gambling site. The Texans and Patriots, who got upset by the Cardinals on Sunday, have the second best odds at 13/2, with the Packers (15/2) & Falcons (14/1) rounding out the top 5.
While it's not a true measure of a team's chances of winning the Super Bowl, it's nice to see that the gambling gods that be showing the respect to San Fran that they deserve. After all, the 49ers have beaten two playoff teams from last year in pretty impressive fashion. You may see the scoreboard and see the Niners only won by 8 each game, but in both games, the Niners had their way with their opponent offensively and defensively. They've won the battles in the trenches and been able to make two Pro Bowl quarterbacks look "just good" instead of All Pro - an accomplishment for any team.
All that being said, this upcoming game against the Vikings is not one to sleep upon. Minnesota may treat this as their Super Bowl - given their relatively low expectations for the season. The one thing I like about this team though is the veteran presence. I don't think any of the leaders on offense and defense will let their teammates take the Vikings for granted. Plus, Harbaugh has shown in his coaching career (in both college and pros) to get the best out of his players at all times.
Preliminary prediction for Week 3 is San Francisco 27, Minnesota 17. It may be closer than most people would think, but I think the Vikings will give a spirited effort. Luckily, their strength (Adrian Peterson) could be cancelled out by the Niners' stalwart and punishing run defense, which continues to contain opponents and make them completely one dimensional. I could see AP reaching about 60/70 yards, but that's about it.
The current Vegas line for the game has San Francisco as a touchdown favorite, with an over/under of 43 points.
While it's not a true measure of a team's chances of winning the Super Bowl, it's nice to see that the gambling gods that be showing the respect to San Fran that they deserve. After all, the 49ers have beaten two playoff teams from last year in pretty impressive fashion. You may see the scoreboard and see the Niners only won by 8 each game, but in both games, the Niners had their way with their opponent offensively and defensively. They've won the battles in the trenches and been able to make two Pro Bowl quarterbacks look "just good" instead of All Pro - an accomplishment for any team.
All that being said, this upcoming game against the Vikings is not one to sleep upon. Minnesota may treat this as their Super Bowl - given their relatively low expectations for the season. The one thing I like about this team though is the veteran presence. I don't think any of the leaders on offense and defense will let their teammates take the Vikings for granted. Plus, Harbaugh has shown in his coaching career (in both college and pros) to get the best out of his players at all times.
Preliminary prediction for Week 3 is San Francisco 27, Minnesota 17. It may be closer than most people would think, but I think the Vikings will give a spirited effort. Luckily, their strength (Adrian Peterson) could be cancelled out by the Niners' stalwart and punishing run defense, which continues to contain opponents and make them completely one dimensional. I could see AP reaching about 60/70 yards, but that's about it.
The current Vegas line for the game has San Francisco as a touchdown favorite, with an over/under of 43 points.
Tuesday, September 18, 2012
I wasn't quite sure what to expect out of my first visit to The Stick. Having been warned by fellow FF members Nick Anthony and Brian Bolek, and having read/heard many less than flattering reviews of the stadium, I knew I would be in for an interesting experience. Here it is: the Great, the Good and the Ugly.
BEER- stella, anchor steam, lagunitas ipa, shock top all on tap. awesome. $10 for what appeared to be a 16oz beer? not awesome. i had an anchor steam followed by a lagunitas- delicious. i was then feeling good enough to venture into the dark, cold waters of the Bud Light. cheaper ($8.50) and 20oz instead of 16oz.
FOOD- forewarned by nick anthony (our exchange on this topic was brief...me- how's the food at the stick...nick- terrible), i was nervous. in fact, considered the start time of the game (5:20 PT), we had planned to go to a "nearby" bar 2 miles from the stadium to grab some food/drinks before the game. more on that story later...but, katie and i did share a massive sausage (insert joke here) which tasted ok, and chicken tenders with fries that were pretty "terrible" but were made less "terrible" by the 4 beers i had at that point.
AREA- frightening. i live in chicago. at my past employer, our office home healthcare service territory covered ALL of chicago, and since we served many medicaid patients, we covered mostly south side and west side patient. the south and west side of chicago can and probably should be compared to a third world country. i was in and out of neighborhoods/homes fairly regularly seeing patients and families. having said that, i was intimidated by the area around the stick. so much so that as we go close to the bar i had planned on going to, called 7 Mile House, i couldn't go through with it. my wife's eyes were getting bigger with fear the closer we go, and so were mine. so many shady people at each passing street. even police officers seem to know to just stay away from some of these streets. we got out of the bus, and started to make our walk to the bar, only half a mile away. after about 10 seconds, we turned around and went right back to the bus stop. 1 minute later we were back on another bus heading back towards The Stick. best decision ever. traffic getting to the stadium is notoriously miserable, so once we got within a mile or so on the bus and saw packs of niners fans, we felt safe getting out. the walk to the stadium from this point forward was fine. once we got close to the stadium, i was very impressed with what i saw. tons of passionate niners fans absolutely partying their asses off- it was like being in the middle of mardi gras, spring break and a football inspired rave all at once. people were nuts, in a good "this is intense" kind of way. clearly people had been there all day long drinking. sweet.
STADIUM- old. small. crumbling. AWESOME. i have heard other fans say that the stadium sucks, and while i get that, i was in love with the stadium. it probably helped that our seats were nearly even with the end zone in the upper deck...first row. our row was 2 seats, nobody in front of us. actually, they had the area roped off and wouldn't let people walk by during gameplay. it was very cool. akin to being in your own personal box, without the free food/drink and outdoors instead of indoors. the views from our seats were great and i would highly recommend them to others. UR04 row 1. the fans were louder than i expected. again, having heard announcers, analysts and fans express disappointment over the noise volume of the crowd in the stadium in the past, i was surprised. having said that, it was the home opener, and sunday night football. so i would have expected nothing less. the jaguars at home or something like that would be an interesting case study. compared to the seahawks, i am sure our home field advantage is nothing. nonetheless, the crowd was really into the game and cleared frustrated stafford into multiple timeouts due to not being able to hear. pretty sweet. the views around the concourses of the oceans and mountains was also very cool. my wife was especially impressed with the sunset, stealing the camera for 5 minutes to snap some extra pics from the concourse. as i told nick earlier today, after having been to a game, i am even more disappointed in the fact that the niners are leaving candlestick for santa clara. not having the stadium downtown is just unacceptable. there seems to be plenty of spare near AT&T park to tear down a few old worthless/rotting piers. it should have been done, but i think corporate interest/$'s pulled them to santa clara. i am glad to have experienced a game at the stick, in san fran, the way it should be. my wife made an interesting comparison of Candlestick to Wrigley Field (she's a cubs fan). it's not a bad comparison, in my opinion. though seemingly falling apart, i loved the classic feel of everything, including the small scoreboard. it made the game more important, and it felt like football all the way through.
all in all, what a great experience. the niners took home the victory and it was a really enjoyable game. they could have won by more, but the overall close feel of the game made every play extremely important, which was great. i can now check Candlestick Park off my bucket list, and i can put a W in parentheses next to it.
WHO'S GOT IT BETTER THAN US.....NOOOOOBODY!!!!!!!!!
thanks for reading
GO NINERS
BEER- stella, anchor steam, lagunitas ipa, shock top all on tap. awesome. $10 for what appeared to be a 16oz beer? not awesome. i had an anchor steam followed by a lagunitas- delicious. i was then feeling good enough to venture into the dark, cold waters of the Bud Light. cheaper ($8.50) and 20oz instead of 16oz.
FOOD- forewarned by nick anthony (our exchange on this topic was brief...me- how's the food at the stick...nick- terrible), i was nervous. in fact, considered the start time of the game (5:20 PT), we had planned to go to a "nearby" bar 2 miles from the stadium to grab some food/drinks before the game. more on that story later...but, katie and i did share a massive sausage (insert joke here) which tasted ok, and chicken tenders with fries that were pretty "terrible" but were made less "terrible" by the 4 beers i had at that point.
AREA- frightening. i live in chicago. at my past employer, our office home healthcare service territory covered ALL of chicago, and since we served many medicaid patients, we covered mostly south side and west side patient. the south and west side of chicago can and probably should be compared to a third world country. i was in and out of neighborhoods/homes fairly regularly seeing patients and families. having said that, i was intimidated by the area around the stick. so much so that as we go close to the bar i had planned on going to, called 7 Mile House, i couldn't go through with it. my wife's eyes were getting bigger with fear the closer we go, and so were mine. so many shady people at each passing street. even police officers seem to know to just stay away from some of these streets. we got out of the bus, and started to make our walk to the bar, only half a mile away. after about 10 seconds, we turned around and went right back to the bus stop. 1 minute later we were back on another bus heading back towards The Stick. best decision ever. traffic getting to the stadium is notoriously miserable, so once we got within a mile or so on the bus and saw packs of niners fans, we felt safe getting out. the walk to the stadium from this point forward was fine. once we got close to the stadium, i was very impressed with what i saw. tons of passionate niners fans absolutely partying their asses off- it was like being in the middle of mardi gras, spring break and a football inspired rave all at once. people were nuts, in a good "this is intense" kind of way. clearly people had been there all day long drinking. sweet.
STADIUM- old. small. crumbling. AWESOME. i have heard other fans say that the stadium sucks, and while i get that, i was in love with the stadium. it probably helped that our seats were nearly even with the end zone in the upper deck...first row. our row was 2 seats, nobody in front of us. actually, they had the area roped off and wouldn't let people walk by during gameplay. it was very cool. akin to being in your own personal box, without the free food/drink and outdoors instead of indoors. the views from our seats were great and i would highly recommend them to others. UR04 row 1. the fans were louder than i expected. again, having heard announcers, analysts and fans express disappointment over the noise volume of the crowd in the stadium in the past, i was surprised. having said that, it was the home opener, and sunday night football. so i would have expected nothing less. the jaguars at home or something like that would be an interesting case study. compared to the seahawks, i am sure our home field advantage is nothing. nonetheless, the crowd was really into the game and cleared frustrated stafford into multiple timeouts due to not being able to hear. pretty sweet. the views around the concourses of the oceans and mountains was also very cool. my wife was especially impressed with the sunset, stealing the camera for 5 minutes to snap some extra pics from the concourse. as i told nick earlier today, after having been to a game, i am even more disappointed in the fact that the niners are leaving candlestick for santa clara. not having the stadium downtown is just unacceptable. there seems to be plenty of spare near AT&T park to tear down a few old worthless/rotting piers. it should have been done, but i think corporate interest/$'s pulled them to santa clara. i am glad to have experienced a game at the stick, in san fran, the way it should be. my wife made an interesting comparison of Candlestick to Wrigley Field (she's a cubs fan). it's not a bad comparison, in my opinion. though seemingly falling apart, i loved the classic feel of everything, including the small scoreboard. it made the game more important, and it felt like football all the way through.
all in all, what a great experience. the niners took home the victory and it was a really enjoyable game. they could have won by more, but the overall close feel of the game made every play extremely important, which was great. i can now check Candlestick Park off my bucket list, and i can put a W in parentheses next to it.
WHO'S GOT IT BETTER THAN US.....NOOOOOBODY!!!!!!!!!
thanks for reading
GO NINERS
Monday, September 17, 2012
Random Niner Thoughts Following Week 2
Some random thoughts a couple hours removed from the Niners 27-19 win over the Lions.
- It's the first time since 2009 in which San Fran started a year 2-0 (ended 8-8). Almost had a chance at 3-0, except Brett Favre had to break our hearts. Brad and Nick were there for that one. I'm still peeved at the conservative play-calling late in the game, running three straight with Glen Coffee to force Minnesota to use all of its timeouts, only to punt the ball back to them. This included a run on 3rd and 6 against a defense that Coffee was averaging just a shade above 2 yards/run. I digress completely....crap.
Week 3 opponent this year? The Vikings. In the Metrodome. Let's hope for a much different result in both the game and the season. - Speaking of Mike Singletary - Ok, no one was speaking of him. In fact, most people want to forget about his up-and-down two-year stint as Niners coach. However, I have to give him credit for kick-starting a new era of Niners football, particularly with the attitude readjustment he gave to Vernon Davis. VD's career started out poorly, and it never looked like he would ever live up to his promise. Singletary lit a fire under his ass, and Davis has been a complete beast since. Anything that comes out of his career is in large part to Singletary. Davis has become the key component in a much improved passing offense, the best it's looked since the Jeff Garcia days.
- Where was Randy Moss? I had to double check the stat sheet. He did record a catch for 14 yards, but is not yet a serious option in 2012 for Alex Smith, who has developed quite the connection with Davis (3 TDs) and Michael Crabtree (13 catches, 143 yards) so far. Entering the season, I didn't expect much from Moss, who last played in 2010, rocky stints with three separate teams. I haven't heard anything bad about Moss. I'm hoping he's providing the veteran leadership that some of these younger wide receivers could benefit from.
- The last time I remember the Niners having this effective of an offense and defense at once...was the last time they won the Super Bowl in 1995. Maybe my memory has faded, but just on quick thought, I can't remember any other better overall Niners squads since then.
- I think I'm going to be a couple games off on my Niners prediction. There's still time for that to come true, but everything I've seen this year would indicate they will finish better than my 9-7 projection. I still think we'll lose a handful of games. Perhaps we don't reach the 13 win mark from last year, but that won't mean last year's team was better. Our division has improved (Ariz is 9-2 in their last 11; Seattle 6-4 in their last 10; Rams will be more competitive with Fisher as coach), so a couple losses in division wouldn't shock me. But I'm upping my projection of the Niners to 11-5.
- Frank Gore - still bringing it - I believe Frank Gore reads obscure 49ers fan predictions from out-of-market fans. Before the season started, I said that Gore would succumb to Kendall Hunter this year. What we've seen from Gore through 2 weeks, I think I'll be eating crow. Gore is averaging 100 yards/game on 6+ yards per carry, with a touchdown in each game. Things can obviously change, but barring injury, I don't think Gore is giving anything up this year.
I hope you're all enjoying the start of this year as much as I am. This year has potential to be a special year. I hope to share my joyous observations throughout the year (and hopefully into February).
Friday, September 14, 2012
Week 2 - Detroit (prediction)
Nick Predicts: Well ladies and gentlemen, here it is, Week 2 against the Lions. I almost said the hated Lions, but know that Coach Harbaugh wants us all to move on from last year. So I will move on. I am not one bit nervous about this game. Megatron is nicked up, Stafford is coming off a three pick game and our team is coming off a very big road win to start their home schedule.
After breaking down the tape from last week's game I really want to see a better performance from Joe Staley. He got absolutely abused by Clay Matthews and with my expectation that he'll have to block Cliff Avril, he'll need to rebound. Avril is a good D-Lineman and he can make life tough for Alex if he gets the pressure. Other then this I expect much of the same from last week.
Alex will throw the ball about 30 times and we'll see a rotation of Hunter/Gore that will keep Frank fresh for late in the game rock pounding.
Player of the Game: Randy Moss. This is 100% a gut feeling, but I think that with it being his first home game and everything he has the potential to have a big game. I also think that there isn't anyone in that secondary that can stop our receivers. I just think Randy has the biggest day.
Not so much player of the Game: O-Line. I have a feeling they'll give up some sacks that will ultimately impact Alex's timing. Their play wont be a big issue, but I expect them to be the weakest link on the field.
Niners 31
Lions 13
Brian's Best Bet: I must say that the Niners impressed me last week. We pwned the Packers in just about every facet of the very sloppy refereed game (I'm not a person who blames refs ever - they were equal opportunity suckfest for both teams).
This week's matchup is against another NFC North team. Detroit squeaked by in Week 1 against the Rams and feature the Stafford/Megatron hookup. Probably the best QB/WR combo in the league, but beyond that, I'm not horribly worried about the Lions offense. Kevin Smith had a solid game in the opener, but San Fran shuts down running backs. If Smith is to have a good day, it'd be in the passing game.
The Niners got me believing after Week 1. It can be a dangerous thought I suppose, especially with the first week being the easiest week to overreact to for just about every NFL fan (after a win - Bears; or loss - Packers).
I do think the Niners will be able to make the Lions one dimensional just like we've been able to do for much of the past 19 games (including playoffs). However, the Lions' one dimension is a pretty solid one.
I like the Niners' chances this week. Last year, we were a solid home team (8-1, including 8-0-1 against the spread). I give the Niners a 10 point win.
Niners 30
Lions 20
Fantasy Stud: Michael Crabtree - Last week, the wide receiver from Texas Tech notched 7 catches for 76 yards, but more importantly for fantasy players, he got nine total targets - next highest total was five. I'm hoping this is his breakout year. Randy Moss may get the national attention, but I'm thinking Crabtree brings the results (at least for this game).
Fantasy Dud: Kevin Smith (Det) - If you had a choice between Smith and other running backs this week in your lineup, I would have leaned towards the other back. The Niners front four shuts down running games. If you still have the option to put someone else in their lineup, I'd recommend it.
After breaking down the tape from last week's game I really want to see a better performance from Joe Staley. He got absolutely abused by Clay Matthews and with my expectation that he'll have to block Cliff Avril, he'll need to rebound. Avril is a good D-Lineman and he can make life tough for Alex if he gets the pressure. Other then this I expect much of the same from last week.
Alex will throw the ball about 30 times and we'll see a rotation of Hunter/Gore that will keep Frank fresh for late in the game rock pounding.
Player of the Game: Randy Moss. This is 100% a gut feeling, but I think that with it being his first home game and everything he has the potential to have a big game. I also think that there isn't anyone in that secondary that can stop our receivers. I just think Randy has the biggest day.
Not so much player of the Game: O-Line. I have a feeling they'll give up some sacks that will ultimately impact Alex's timing. Their play wont be a big issue, but I expect them to be the weakest link on the field.
Niners 31
Lions 13
Brian's Best Bet: I must say that the Niners impressed me last week. We pwned the Packers in just about every facet of the very sloppy refereed game (I'm not a person who blames refs ever - they were equal opportunity suckfest for both teams).
This week's matchup is against another NFC North team. Detroit squeaked by in Week 1 against the Rams and feature the Stafford/Megatron hookup. Probably the best QB/WR combo in the league, but beyond that, I'm not horribly worried about the Lions offense. Kevin Smith had a solid game in the opener, but San Fran shuts down running backs. If Smith is to have a good day, it'd be in the passing game.
The Niners got me believing after Week 1. It can be a dangerous thought I suppose, especially with the first week being the easiest week to overreact to for just about every NFL fan (after a win - Bears; or loss - Packers).
I do think the Niners will be able to make the Lions one dimensional just like we've been able to do for much of the past 19 games (including playoffs). However, the Lions' one dimension is a pretty solid one.
I like the Niners' chances this week. Last year, we were a solid home team (8-1, including 8-0-1 against the spread). I give the Niners a 10 point win.
Niners 30
Lions 20
Fantasy Stud: Michael Crabtree - Last week, the wide receiver from Texas Tech notched 7 catches for 76 yards, but more importantly for fantasy players, he got nine total targets - next highest total was five. I'm hoping this is his breakout year. Randy Moss may get the national attention, but I'm thinking Crabtree brings the results (at least for this game).
Fantasy Dud: Kevin Smith (Det) - If you had a choice between Smith and other running backs this week in your lineup, I would have leaned towards the other back. The Niners front four shuts down running games. If you still have the option to put someone else in their lineup, I'd recommend it.
Thursday, September 13, 2012
Niner Thoughts While Watching GB/Chi
Watching the Bears/Packers game right now. Packers don't look like the same offensive juggernaut that they have been the past couple years. Obviously the season is young, so that could easily change.
But what the Packers have been doing this game that they didn't do against the Niners is play some defense. Some of that may be attributed to the Bears offensive line, which hasn't given Cutler any time to throw. A common sight tonight has been 2nd down and a mile for the Bears - quite the opposite for the Niners, who were able to muster 377 total yards and 22 first downs against the same defense.
If the Niners can maintain the offensive efficiency they displayed in the opener and the Packers devolve somewhat as an offense (I don't think they have a good enough defense to overcome any sort of dip in offense), I believe they will be the odds-on favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
Yeah, yeah...I had the Eagles as my Super Bowl pick - not sure why. I'm already ditching that.
But what the Packers have been doing this game that they didn't do against the Niners is play some defense. Some of that may be attributed to the Bears offensive line, which hasn't given Cutler any time to throw. A common sight tonight has been 2nd down and a mile for the Bears - quite the opposite for the Niners, who were able to muster 377 total yards and 22 first downs against the same defense.
If the Niners can maintain the offensive efficiency they displayed in the opener and the Packers devolve somewhat as an offense (I don't think they have a good enough defense to overcome any sort of dip in offense), I believe they will be the odds-on favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
Yeah, yeah...I had the Eagles as my Super Bowl pick - not sure why. I'm already ditching that.
Tuesday, September 11, 2012
The Vegas Perspective after Week 1
Before the season opened, the Niners were about 13/1 (+1300) to win the Super Bowl, according to 5dimes.eu. I don't remember the exact number of teams ahead of them in odds, but the Niners were roughly 5th or 6th overall based on chance to win.
The season opening victory at Green Bay definitely dipped that line lower. In fact, according to the site, the Niners are the second favorite to win the 2013 Lombardi at 13/2 (+650) (or 6.5/1 for the math-impaired) behind the Patriots at 5/1.
Green Bay, which was co-favorites with the Patriots entering the year, fell to +825 (4th overall).
The Niners still have a rough schedule ahead of them, but it's very promising that they were able to hold down the Packers pretty good (given the strength of their passing game) while being able to establish a solid offensive game plan for the opener.
San Fran continues their tough road as it hosts Detroit on Sunday Night Football (NBC, 7:30pm). The current line is San Francisco -6.5, with an over/under of 46.
A 2-0 start against two playoff teams from 2011 will definitely raise my overall expectations for this season. Let's hope we pick up where we left off in the opener.
The season opening victory at Green Bay definitely dipped that line lower. In fact, according to the site, the Niners are the second favorite to win the 2013 Lombardi at 13/2 (+650) (or 6.5/1 for the math-impaired) behind the Patriots at 5/1.
Green Bay, which was co-favorites with the Patriots entering the year, fell to +825 (4th overall).
The Niners still have a rough schedule ahead of them, but it's very promising that they were able to hold down the Packers pretty good (given the strength of their passing game) while being able to establish a solid offensive game plan for the opener.
San Fran continues their tough road as it hosts Detroit on Sunday Night Football (NBC, 7:30pm). The current line is San Francisco -6.5, with an over/under of 46.
A 2-0 start against two playoff teams from 2011 will definitely raise my overall expectations for this season. Let's hope we pick up where we left off in the opener.
Green Bay - Game Day
Good Morning Fans,
Sorry for the slow update on the game day experience. It took a little while to come down from cloud 9! What a win. What an experience.
Lambeau Field is everything that you've ever heard. The stadium and the experience is a one of a kind. We got to the park 3 hours early and walked from one of the neighborhoods where you could pay to park on someones lawn for $10-$50/car. The cost was more if that home let you use their bathroom or tailgate in their yard. We walked the parking lot and had some great football discussions with Niner and Packer fans.
It is so cliche, but once you walk through that dark tunnel to the well lit field it takes your breath away. The Packers had put either a green or gold shirt on every seat (seat is used loosely because every seat is a bleacher seat), so it was cool to look around and see each section of the stadium as a green or gold section. Getting in there early enough we got to watch the Niners warm up. Harbaugh made an appearance.
We grabbed a beer and a foot long brat, that was easily the best brat I've ever had and went to our seats. Boyz II Men smashed the national anthem and the jets brought tears to some eyes. One thing to point out is the ovation Donald Driver got during player introductions. It was HUGE, to say the least. This non-Packer fan got goose bumps from the love they showed this guy.
To cap off an incredible trip, We won! Sorry, we dominated this great team top to bottom. When we play them again it wont be this easy. I highly encourage everyone to go to Green Bay for a game, whether or not you're seeing your favorite team, it is a must.
Who's got it better then us???!!!
NOOOOOO-BODY!
Sorry for the slow update on the game day experience. It took a little while to come down from cloud 9! What a win. What an experience.
Lambeau Field is everything that you've ever heard. The stadium and the experience is a one of a kind. We got to the park 3 hours early and walked from one of the neighborhoods where you could pay to park on someones lawn for $10-$50/car. The cost was more if that home let you use their bathroom or tailgate in their yard. We walked the parking lot and had some great football discussions with Niner and Packer fans.
It is so cliche, but once you walk through that dark tunnel to the well lit field it takes your breath away. The Packers had put either a green or gold shirt on every seat (seat is used loosely because every seat is a bleacher seat), so it was cool to look around and see each section of the stadium as a green or gold section. Getting in there early enough we got to watch the Niners warm up. Harbaugh made an appearance.
We grabbed a beer and a foot long brat, that was easily the best brat I've ever had and went to our seats. Boyz II Men smashed the national anthem and the jets brought tears to some eyes. One thing to point out is the ovation Donald Driver got during player introductions. It was HUGE, to say the least. This non-Packer fan got goose bumps from the love they showed this guy.
To cap off an incredible trip, We won! Sorry, we dominated this great team top to bottom. When we play them again it wont be this easy. I highly encourage everyone to go to Green Bay for a game, whether or not you're seeing your favorite team, it is a must.
Who's got it better then us???!!!
NOOOOOO-BODY!
Sunday, September 9, 2012
Live Blog for Niners/Packers
3 and out...tough start. At least Andy Lee is an incredible punter!
...followed by a penalty. Followed by a Packers first down. Let's go D!
Weird to see Cedric Benson in a Packers uni
2 bad calls...Harbaugh is disturbingly angry
now a bad challenge- weird start for the niners
watching randy moss catch passes in a niners uni is amazing
BB's call on hunter outrushing gore this year is looking pretty good...
akers for 3...looks familiar
gore looks slooow compared to hunter, but always finishes runs so well to make up for it
i think bj raji ate bj raji in the offseason
how old is charles woodson?
i wouldn't be surprised one bit if clay matthews has a closet full of skeletons (literally) somewhere...he's a scary looking dude
RANDY MOSS TD.
Jordy Nelson is white trash- literally
...followed by a penalty. Followed by a Packers first down. Let's go D!
Weird to see Cedric Benson in a Packers uni
2 bad calls...Harbaugh is disturbingly angry
now a bad challenge- weird start for the niners
watching randy moss catch passes in a niners uni is amazing
BB's call on hunter outrushing gore this year is looking pretty good...
akers for 3...looks familiar
gore looks slooow compared to hunter, but always finishes runs so well to make up for it
i think bj raji ate bj raji in the offseason
how old is charles woodson?
i wouldn't be surprised one bit if clay matthews has a closet full of skeletons (literally) somewhere...he's a scary looking dude
RANDY MOSS TD.
Jordy Nelson is white trash- literally
Predictions - Week 1
This game is too difficult to predict with the utmost confidence. The only thing I know for sure that I'll see Boyz II Men sing the national anthem.
Will the explosive Packer offense be too much for the Niner D to stop? Can the Niner D make life too difficult for Mr. Rodgers? The unknowns outweigh the absolutes in this match up, but if I am predicting this match up I'm going with a score of 24-20, 49ers. I think the new and improved Alex Smith led offense will move up and down the field, but wont be as dominant in week 1 as they will in week 6. The depth at running back will be on display and I really think that we'll have a lot of yards on the ground. I still like this score of 24-20, but if the Packers wide receiver are allowed to run free then I see it flipping to a Packers win.
Player of the game: Aldon Smith. He is too quick and will be able to get to Rodgers at will. He will make life for the O-Line and A-Rodge very difficult.
The not so much player of the game: Vernon Davis. He is THE guy and will be keyed on. With Woodson moving to safety, he'll be free to watch Davis from a distance and get in a position to limit his big play ability.
Will the explosive Packer offense be too much for the Niner D to stop? Can the Niner D make life too difficult for Mr. Rodgers? The unknowns outweigh the absolutes in this match up, but if I am predicting this match up I'm going with a score of 24-20, 49ers. I think the new and improved Alex Smith led offense will move up and down the field, but wont be as dominant in week 1 as they will in week 6. The depth at running back will be on display and I really think that we'll have a lot of yards on the ground. I still like this score of 24-20, but if the Packers wide receiver are allowed to run free then I see it flipping to a Packers win.
Player of the game: Aldon Smith. He is too quick and will be able to get to Rodgers at will. He will make life for the O-Line and A-Rodge very difficult.
The not so much player of the game: Vernon Davis. He is THE guy and will be keyed on. With Woodson moving to safety, he'll be free to watch Davis from a distance and get in a position to limit his big play ability.
Predictions Go Here - Week 1 (San Fran at Green Bay)
Brian:
I'm of the mindset that the Packers are going to be really pissed off this game based on how their season of high expectations to repeat ended and will come out of the gates hot in the season opener at home. I showed you the numbers of good/great QBs against us last year - I think Rodgers puts up 300-350 w/ about 3 TDs. I really want the Niners to start the season with a win like they did last year, but I'm just not feeling it. I hope I'm wrong though, but I'm writing this one from the gut. I want to see Alex Smith get better in the red zone. For this game, I see his struggles continuing over from last year.
Packers 31-16
Fantasy Outlook:
Fantasy Stud: David Akers - Last year, Akers led the league with 44 field goals on 52 attempts, thanks in large part to an anemic red zone offense. The next closest totals by any teams in field goals made was 33, attempts was 44 - a half field goal made/attempt than the second place team in each category. This is a category that needs improvement this year (i.e. needs to get lower - MORE TDS!) if the Niners are going to make a legitimate Super Bowl run. There are more high scoring teams on our schedule this season, so there's no room for trading touchdowns for field goals this year. For Week 1, I see Akers kicking 3 field goals.
Fantasy Dud: San Francisco D - If you're in a league that has yards as a category, benching the Niners D wouldn't be a bad play for one week. Even regular leagues with just points allowed, it might not be a bad move to see if Buffalo, NY Jets or Seattle D is available. While the Niners were world beaters against the run last year, they allowed 300+ yards to many of the good/great QBs last year. Rodgers is as elite as they come, and to expect anything less than 300 yards from him is hard to come by as a thought. They should be able to stop Benson/Starks/Green on the ground, but Rodgers is another monster all together.
I'm of the mindset that the Packers are going to be really pissed off this game based on how their season of high expectations to repeat ended and will come out of the gates hot in the season opener at home. I showed you the numbers of good/great QBs against us last year - I think Rodgers puts up 300-350 w/ about 3 TDs. I really want the Niners to start the season with a win like they did last year, but I'm just not feeling it. I hope I'm wrong though, but I'm writing this one from the gut. I want to see Alex Smith get better in the red zone. For this game, I see his struggles continuing over from last year.
Packers 31-16
Fantasy Outlook:
Fantasy Stud: David Akers - Last year, Akers led the league with 44 field goals on 52 attempts, thanks in large part to an anemic red zone offense. The next closest totals by any teams in field goals made was 33, attempts was 44 - a half field goal made/attempt than the second place team in each category. This is a category that needs improvement this year (i.e. needs to get lower - MORE TDS!) if the Niners are going to make a legitimate Super Bowl run. There are more high scoring teams on our schedule this season, so there's no room for trading touchdowns for field goals this year. For Week 1, I see Akers kicking 3 field goals.
Fantasy Dud: San Francisco D - If you're in a league that has yards as a category, benching the Niners D wouldn't be a bad play for one week. Even regular leagues with just points allowed, it might not be a bad move to see if Buffalo, NY Jets or Seattle D is available. While the Niners were world beaters against the run last year, they allowed 300+ yards to many of the good/great QBs last year. Rodgers is as elite as they come, and to expect anything less than 300 yards from him is hard to come by as a thought. They should be able to stop Benson/Starks/Green on the ground, but Rodgers is another monster all together.
Green Bay - week 1, day 1
I've now officially been in Green Bay for 10 hours and 57 minutes and I've seen quite a bit. One thing I am impressed with is the football knowledge and loyalty this town posses. I've spoken to women that don't look the part of "football fan" and had incredible football conversations. I hope that doesn't offend any of our female readers. I've been to lambeau field and seen their pro shop and hall of fame. Two things that I truly hope our Niners are going to incorporate into the new Google Park or Apple Field in 2014. I ran into the president if the Packers, mark Murphy, while he was giving a tour to some senior citizens and then 4th wide receiver James Jines shopping for what else, packer gear. A side note here, this organization has their logo on everything; cups to wine glasses, pajamas to jerseys and BBQ's to bedding.
Needless to say I am impressed and I haven't even been inside the stadium yet. We will begin tailgating at around noon tomorrow and I have been promised an experience for the ages capped by Boyz II Men singing the national anthem and a fly over.
I'll plan on posting some updates throughout the day! Niner Federation, who's got it better then us?! Noooo-body!!!
Needless to say I am impressed and I haven't even been inside the stadium yet. We will begin tailgating at around noon tomorrow and I have been promised an experience for the ages capped by Boyz II Men singing the national anthem and a fly over.
I'll plan on posting some updates throughout the day! Niner Federation, who's got it better then us?! Noooo-body!!!
Friday, September 7, 2012
First 49er Fan Federation Fun!
It feels good to be here, surrounded by my fellow Niners faithful. I have a challenge for my two fellow bloggers: we need to recruit more members that are niners fans! Let's get the word out via facebook, twitter, fax and telegraph. We can start small by getting to 10 Niners fan faithful members and go from there. Now for a little 49er Fan Federation Fun!
The season is upon us, and we are upon the season. 48 hours from now I will be preparing for a weeklong vacation, and I will either be incredibly happy or quite disappointed. The mood will tie directly to the outcome of the Niners-Packers season opener, of course. One could argue that this is actually the toughest game on the schedule for the Niners this year. One could also argue that this week's game will be a preview of the NFC Championship game. It's hard to predict the future, but Vegas does agree with me: http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/futures/.
For the first time since 2002, I have confidence that my favorite team in the NFL has a fighting chance for a Super Bowl berth. Yes, it has been 10 long years. For proof of how challenging the 2000's were for us Niners fans, see: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sfo/. As amazing as the 80's and 90's were, the 00's were equally anti-awesome. Dennis Erickson, Mike Nolan and Mike Singeltary were all absolutely AWFUL coaches. Has their been a trio of consecutive head coach hires worse than this in ANY major sport EVER? You could say it's been a long road back...be on the lookout for a "2000's Era Niners Head Coach Misery" Post from me in the near future.
But now, it's Harbaugh Nation. For a tribute to my current favorite head coach in sports, see this link: http://blog.sfgate.com/thebigevent/2012/08/24/more-than-a-fad-the-tweets-of-jim-harbaugh/. This is an incredible coach, and man. Watching him turn this team around last year was really a thing of beauty. His enthusiasm and joy for the game is second to none, and it rubs off on the entire team. He's also very smart and his creativity is impressive. And, who can forget this moment: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCdZGRD4mfI. I can't wait to witness the post-game handshake live as I attend Niners-Lions in 9 days. The Sunday Night Football, Home Opener for the Niners vs. the Lions.
So many emotions come into play before a game like this: nervousness, excitement, fear, joy, and anger at aaron rodgers after his first incredible play that no D in the world (including the Niners) could have prevented. I will provide a more in depth game preview Sunday before kickoff.
The season is upon us, and we are upon the season. 48 hours from now I will be preparing for a weeklong vacation, and I will either be incredibly happy or quite disappointed. The mood will tie directly to the outcome of the Niners-Packers season opener, of course. One could argue that this is actually the toughest game on the schedule for the Niners this year. One could also argue that this week's game will be a preview of the NFC Championship game. It's hard to predict the future, but Vegas does agree with me: http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/futures/.
For the first time since 2002, I have confidence that my favorite team in the NFL has a fighting chance for a Super Bowl berth. Yes, it has been 10 long years. For proof of how challenging the 2000's were for us Niners fans, see: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sfo/. As amazing as the 80's and 90's were, the 00's were equally anti-awesome. Dennis Erickson, Mike Nolan and Mike Singeltary were all absolutely AWFUL coaches. Has their been a trio of consecutive head coach hires worse than this in ANY major sport EVER? You could say it's been a long road back...be on the lookout for a "2000's Era Niners Head Coach Misery" Post from me in the near future.
But now, it's Harbaugh Nation. For a tribute to my current favorite head coach in sports, see this link: http://blog.sfgate.com/thebigevent/2012/08/24/more-than-a-fad-the-tweets-of-jim-harbaugh/. This is an incredible coach, and man. Watching him turn this team around last year was really a thing of beauty. His enthusiasm and joy for the game is second to none, and it rubs off on the entire team. He's also very smart and his creativity is impressive. And, who can forget this moment: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCdZGRD4mfI. I can't wait to witness the post-game handshake live as I attend Niners-Lions in 9 days. The Sunday Night Football, Home Opener for the Niners vs. the Lions.
So many emotions come into play before a game like this: nervousness, excitement, fear, joy, and anger at aaron rodgers after his first incredible play that no D in the world (including the Niners) could have prevented. I will provide a more in depth game preview Sunday before kickoff.
Thursday, September 6, 2012
4 bold 9ers Predictions (Brian)
Here are 4 9ers predictions that may go against the norm of traditional thinking. My boys may disagree with me, but that's why we have three voices in this blog:
1. Kendall Hunter will outrush Frank Gore this season - After years of failed backups for Frank Gore, I believe the Niners found their back of the future last year in Hunter. He has great speed and did well in limited time last year. As Gore gets up there in age and carries, I believe this will be the year where the torch is passed to another back, and that back will be Hunter.
2. Brandon Jacobs will not be on the team to finish the year - If you look at our running back depth (Gore, Hunter, LaMichael James, Anthony Dixon), I don't see Jacobs getting a lot of carries. On the Giants, he was never really a threat in the passing game like Gore, Hunter and James have been or will be. His best chance of sticking with the team would be as a goal-line or short-yardage back given his girth. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets moved or released, especially if the other backs make the impact I believe they can make.
3. Statistically speaking, San Fran will not have the best defense in the division. That's not to say the Niners defense will suddenly become mediocre. I believe they'll still be one of the top 5-10 units in the league. However, our schedule this year will include much better QBs than last year.
Here were the passing stats allowed by the Niners in games where they faced a good/great QB in 2011.
427 passing yards & 3 TDs to Romo/Dallas
416 passing yards & 2 TDs to Vick/Philly
311 passing yards & 2 TDs to Eli/NYG
305 passing yards to Big Ben/Pitt
Somehow, in these games, San Fran was able to go 3-1.They will consistently face better QBs this year, including: Eli, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Matt Stafford, and Jay Cutler. Last year, the Niners allowed 200 or less passing yards to 5 of their 6 divisional games, which speaks just as much to the lack of quality quarterbacks in the division as it does to our defense. I believe our rush defense will still be top 3, but I think overall (statistically speaking), Seattle may end up with the best defense in the division.
4. Colin Kaepernick will start in a few games this year. Yes, I know Alex Smith had a career year last year, but a career year of 3144 yards and 17 TDs in a season where he starts every game doesn't say much for Smith's career. Many of the quarterbacks that the Niners will face will have more yards and TDs in a 8-10 game span than that.
Smith was able to avoid turning the ball over last year (had a league best 1.1% interception rate in 2011), but he was terrible in the red zone, which resulted in David Akers being the most active field goal kicker last year. If Smith's red zone troubles continue, it will be difficult to beat some of these teams we face with good/elite quarterbacks. The Niners brought in Randy Moss, Mario Manningham & drafted AJ Jenkins to bolster the receiving core. While I believe our WR depth is better this year, I don't necessarily think that was the main reason for the red zone problems.
Smith was able to avoid turning the ball over last year (had a league best 1.1% interception rate in 2011), but he was terrible in the red zone, which resulted in David Akers being the most active field goal kicker last year. If Smith's red zone troubles continue, it will be difficult to beat some of these teams we face with good/elite quarterbacks. The Niners brought in Randy Moss, Mario Manningham & drafted AJ Jenkins to bolster the receiving core. While I believe our WR depth is better this year, I don't necessarily think that was the main reason for the red zone problems.
Smith has started all 16 games just twice in his seven-year career (including 2008, which he missed completely due to a shoulder injury), so in that regard, this isn't a bold declaration. However, with his 13-3 record on the resume now, Smith being replaced during the season is pretty out there. I believe Kaepernick will be given a look this year to see if he should be the quarterback entering 2013. Smith signed a three-year deal in the offseason, but anyone who follows football knows the contracts might as well be written on toilet paper.
Welcome to the 49er Fan Federation
Welcome to the 49ers Fan Federation - a trio of Niners fans composed of Brian Bolek, Brad Schmidgall & Nick Anthony.
People who have followed my B-Bo Knows blog know my deal. I'm a sports nut who in the past 5 years has developed a serious interest in sports investments (aka gambling) and fantasy sports in addition to my love of the 49ers. In this blog, I will try presenting a unique angle to the Niners that most of my friends would not know - from my opinions of who I think will be a fantasy football asset to what angle of a sports line I would consider betting in their games. As many of you know, I am not afraid to say if I don't like the Niners' chances in a given week. However, I can't be held responsible for your degenerate gambling ways, so don't cry to me if your bet loses. Of course I won't be wrong though, so it shouldn't be a problem.
I know Brad from my years at U of I in Champaign and after almost 8 years without seeing him, recently reconnected with him at a social event sponsored by an organization of which we are both members. He is friends with Nick, who introduces himself in the initial blog of 49FF. I don't believe I've met him, but based on his first entry, I will enjoy the energy that he brings as a fan.
All three of us will be going to Niners games at some point this year (separately). I will aim to get first-hand analysis from each of those games.
I'm aiming to get weekly predictions going with the gents. I'm not sure if they will predict the Niners to win every week, but hell, we're fans, so I can't blame them if they're predicting what they root for.
Please let us know if there's certain things you'd like us to write about as it relates to the 49ers. If you're a Niners fan, please let me know and I'd be glad to add you as an author.
Enjoy the blog.
People who have followed my B-Bo Knows blog know my deal. I'm a sports nut who in the past 5 years has developed a serious interest in sports investments (aka gambling) and fantasy sports in addition to my love of the 49ers. In this blog, I will try presenting a unique angle to the Niners that most of my friends would not know - from my opinions of who I think will be a fantasy football asset to what angle of a sports line I would consider betting in their games. As many of you know, I am not afraid to say if I don't like the Niners' chances in a given week. However, I can't be held responsible for your degenerate gambling ways, so don't cry to me if your bet loses. Of course I won't be wrong though, so it shouldn't be a problem.
I know Brad from my years at U of I in Champaign and after almost 8 years without seeing him, recently reconnected with him at a social event sponsored by an organization of which we are both members. He is friends with Nick, who introduces himself in the initial blog of 49FF. I don't believe I've met him, but based on his first entry, I will enjoy the energy that he brings as a fan.
All three of us will be going to Niners games at some point this year (separately). I will aim to get first-hand analysis from each of those games.
I'm aiming to get weekly predictions going with the gents. I'm not sure if they will predict the Niners to win every week, but hell, we're fans, so I can't blame them if they're predicting what they root for.
Please let us know if there's certain things you'd like us to write about as it relates to the 49ers. If you're a Niners fan, please let me know and I'd be glad to add you as an author.
Enjoy the blog.
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