4 bold 9ers Predictions (Brian)

Here are 4 9ers predictions that may go against the norm of traditional thinking. My boys may disagree with me, but that's why we have three voices in this blog:

1. Kendall Hunter will outrush Frank Gore this season - After years of failed backups for Frank Gore, I believe the Niners found their back of the future last year in Hunter. He has great speed and did well in limited time last year. As Gore gets up there in age and carries, I believe this will be the year where the torch is passed to another back, and that back will be Hunter.

2. Brandon Jacobs will not be on the team to finish the year - If you look at our running back depth (Gore, Hunter, LaMichael James, Anthony Dixon), I don't see Jacobs getting a lot of carries. On the Giants, he was never really a threat in the passing game like Gore, Hunter and James have been or will be. His best chance of sticking with the team would be as a goal-line or short-yardage back given his girth. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets moved or released, especially if the other backs make the impact I believe they can make.

3. Statistically speaking, San Fran will not have the best defense in the division. That's not to say the  Niners defense will suddenly become mediocre. I believe they'll still be one of the top 5-10 units in the league. However, our schedule this year will include much better QBs than last year. 

Here were the passing stats allowed by the Niners in games where they faced a good/great QB in 2011.

427 passing yards & 3 TDs to Romo/Dallas

416 passing yards & 2 TDs to Vick/Philly

311 passing yards & 2 TDs to Eli/NYG

305 passing yards to Big Ben/Pitt

Somehow, in these games, San Fran was able to go 3-1.They will consistently face better QBs this year, including: Eli, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Matt Stafford, and Jay Cutler. Last year, the Niners allowed 200 or less passing yards to 5 of their 6 divisional games, which speaks just as much to the lack of quality quarterbacks in the division as it does to our defense. I believe our rush defense will still be top 3, but I think overall (statistically speaking), Seattle may end up with the best defense in the division.

4. Colin Kaepernick will start in a few games this year. Yes, I know Alex Smith had a career year last year, but a career year of 3144 yards and 17 TDs in a season where he starts every game doesn't say much for Smith's career. Many of the quarterbacks that the Niners will face will have more yards and TDs in a 8-10 game span than that.

Smith was able to avoid turning the ball over last year (had a league best 1.1% interception rate in 2011), but he was terrible in the red zone, which resulted in David Akers being the most active field goal kicker last year. If Smith's red zone troubles continue, it will be difficult to beat some of these teams we face with good/elite quarterbacks. The Niners brought in Randy Moss, Mario Manningham & drafted AJ Jenkins to bolster the receiving core. While I believe our WR depth is better this year, I don't necessarily think that was the main reason for the red zone problems.

Smith has started all 16 games just twice in his seven-year career (including 2008, which he missed completely due to a shoulder injury), so in that regard, this isn't a bold declaration. However, with his 13-3 record on the resume now, Smith being replaced during the season is pretty out there. I believe Kaepernick will be given a look this year to see if he should be the quarterback entering 2013. Smith signed a three-year deal in the offseason, but anyone who follows football knows the contracts might as well be written on toilet paper.