Super Bowl Odds
The biggest jump in odds since the start of the year has been San Fran's division rival Arizona, who opened around 150/1 in the preseason and are currently 27/1 to win the Super Bowl. That's what a 3-0 start, including wins over two strong offenses (NE & Philly), will do. Dating back to Week 9 of last year, Arizona has the best record in the NFL (10-2). The only thing holding them back is an average QB, but I thought the same thing about Alex Smith last year.
Week 4 Thoughts
The Niners head to MetLife Stadium for a Week 4 match-up against the Revis-less New York Jets. Sanchez has completed about half of his passes, the running game has been quite stagnant, yet the Jets sport a 2-1 record.
I believe this will be a low-scoring, ugly game. I see a 19-17, 19-13 score, with the Niners prevailing. I believe the Niners will keep the ball on the ground way more this game around than in Week 3. The Jets have allowed 4.6 yards/carry. Look for the play action to be a big part of the game plan for San Francisco (assuming they establish the run early), especially with Revis Island not occupying one half of the field.
On the Jets side of the ball, their non-existent running game will disappear even further against a punishing SF run defense - which did not allow a rushing touchdown for the first 14 weeks of last season but allowed its first score already on a QB run last week. Sanchez doesn't scare me - and no, neither does Tebow.
The current line on the game has the Niners as a 4-point favorite, with an over/under of 40 points. I'm taking a betting hiatus, but my favorite bet would be the under here. It will be ugly, but the Niners will pull out the W.
Bolek (Hypothetical) Bet: Under 40 points.
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