The Beginning of Kaep as the San Franchise & Other Week 11 Musings

The free Gameday Magazine I got from the PR folks after the game along w/ my ticket stub for the MNF game against the Bears

For those who are "friends" with me on Facebook, you know by now that I went to San Francisco with my girlfriend Jen to celebrate her 30th birthday. We did all of the cool touristy stuff - walked on Golden Gate bridge, walked by the crooked part of Lombard street (and even had a cabbie drive us through it), Alcatraz tour, and so on.

The last major thing we did before flying back to Chicago was catching the Niners match-up against the Bears in a battle of back-up QBs, both who got the start thanks to QB concussions to the starters a week before.

Many were expecting the battle of Colin Kaepernick & Jason Campbell to be an ugly one. Well, it was, for half of them at least. While Kaep shined in his first career start, Campbell never had a shot, battling the combination of slow feet, a bad offensive front five & a devastating 49ers front that never really gave Campbell and company a chance to get into an offensive groove.

With the Niners carrying a 20-0 lead into the half, the real question to be solved was whether the Niners could complete the shutout, not whether the Bears had a chance to come back (they didn't). 

Another question that arose around Niner Nation and on ESPN was whether the Niners should stick with the second-year QB from Nevada or go back to the less-flashy veteran in Alex Smith.

First row seats for MNF have their perks

I've gone back and forth on this, and I think I've settled on the realization that Harbaugh will let Alex Smith play as long as he's healthy. One start does not make a season, even if it's against a solid defense in the Bears. I was at the game, so I'm not sure if it was more what the Niners were doing that was creating offensive success or if the Bears were just having a difficult time adjusting to a QB they didn't have much tape on.

I was wrong...about the Niners going with a conservative approach and running it a ton with Kaepernick starting. They threw the ball a lot more than I thought - this makes me believe that Harbaugh trusts him with the offense (and gives me hope that he might get another shot sooner rather than later).

Whatever the reason, I expect to see Smith starting if he is healthy. I know the veterans on the team respect everything Smith has gone through in his career with the Niners to get where he is at now. As much as I'd like to see how Kaepernick can build off of this start, I think we may need to wait and see on it (assuming Smith clears concussion tests this week).

I still believe Kaepernick will have the inside shot to start 2013 as the starter - wouldn't be surprised to see Alex Smith starting somewhere else next year (Kansas City, Philadelphia, NY Jets are possibilities IMO). Time will tell, but I believe Week 11 was the start of Kaepernick as the San Franchise QB.

Week 12 Preview

One reason I think Smith will start if he is healthy is because the Niners will be heading to N'Orleans to face an upstart Saints squad that is heating up at the right time (won 5 of their last 6). It'd be a lot to ask a young QB like Kaepernick to deal with the daunting environment that the Superdome presents.

Kyle Williams in a moment of thought/prayer before the game.

When I projected this game a few weeks ago, I projected this game as a likely loss for the Niners, but now that I thought about it, I give the edge to the Niners (regardless of QB). The Saints' defense remains a work-in-progress (462 yards allowed/game is by far the worst in the league) while the 49ers allow almost 200 yards (two football fields) less at 277 yards/game.

I expect the 49ers to be able to move the ball however they want to. The Saints' best chance of winning (as always) is to air it out with Drew Brees at a high rate and hope the defense has an NFL-average type of defensive effort. I think the Niners' strong line will be able to contain the Saints front and get the holes for Gore and Hunter as they have all year.

If Hunter wasn't behind Gore right now, I believe we'd be talking about him the way we're talking about C.J. Spiller's impact on the Bills.

I'll say the Niners take this one (regardless of QB) 27-24.

I can't wait...to see what the stadium in Santa Clara will look like. I've been to Candlestick three times in my life (all in the past four seasons), and while I've enjoyed Niners' victories each time, the stadium was nothing special. It's in the middle of nowhere in a crappy neighborhood. While it won't be in the city limits anymore, that's ok. From what I've seen of the stadium, it looks like it will be quite the modern masterpiece. I hope to see it in the next five years, hopefully during/after a season in which we will have won another ring.