A Look Ahead to Rest of 2012 and Playoff Projected Seed

The old cliche of players saying "one game at a time" is fine and dandy for them, but for us football hungry folks, it's fun to look ahead to see what lies ahead on the horizon.

The Niners have had another impressive start to 2012, even more so than 2011. And yet, last year, they were 7-1 at this point. I really like the balance a lot better this year than last, although I think we'll be in trouble if we fall behind in games by a touchdown or more (and yes, I don't trust Alex Smith in those spots).

Here's a list of box scores where Alex Smith has been behind center for a comeback of more than 7 points:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200512240ram.htm

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200601010sfo.htm

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200612310den.htm

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201110020phi.htm

Out of these games, only one is from the past five years, which happens to be the only one where Alex really did anything, when he helped lead a comeback after trailing by 23-3 to the Eagles only to win 24-23. If the Niners fall behind early in games (which hasn't happened much thanks to our defense), I worry about their ability to come back, especially if the team abandons the run like they did against the Giants.

I'm just hoping the Niners can win the same way they have this year (solid running/run blocking, short routes for Alex Smith to throw, and especially the shutdown D). If the D slips one game and falls behind 10-0/14-0, I will be worried about Alex if they're forced to throw their way out of the deficit.

Here's a short synopsis of the remaining games and what I am projecting from each:

Week 10: vs. St. Louis - This is a better St. Louis squad than what we faced last year, mainly due to the addition of Jeff Fisher as coach. I think he has the team prepared for this game, but the Niners should win this one 20-10.

Week 11: vs. Chicago - The end of a 5 of 6 stretch at home, arguably the best NFC match-up to date. I'm hoping Chicago gets softened up by Houston's defensive line. If the Bears can't force turnovers (which I don't think they will), I believe the Niners take this game under the lights by double digits - 27-14

Week 12: at New Orleans - I worry about this one more than Chicago. (1) Revenge game for New Orleans - Payton hasn't coached since that playoff loss; (2) Potent offense; (3) Short Week. I believe the Saints will take this one, and it'll be a high scoring affair - 31-27

Week 13: at St. Louis - I'd be mildly surprised if St. Louis took this one, especially if my project of a loss to the Saints holds true - since the 49ers under Harbaugh respond amazing after a loss. I'll say 24-9 SF.

Week 14: Miami - Who would have thought that this could be a competitive game entering the year, especially with how the Dolphins played in the pre-season? It'll be interesting to see if Miami can avoid the fate of other hot start teams (Arizona, Minnesota) or if this will just be the same story of a team over-achieving to start the year only to fade at the end. I'll give this one to SF 23-13

Week 15: at New England - This has potential to be one of the better cross-conference games this year (like this week's Chicago/Houston game). New England plays Houston the week before. Great coaching match-up between Harbaugh and Belichick. San Fran has proved it can beat a great team on the road this year (GB), but I think NE squeaks this one out 27-23.

Week 16: at Seattle - The Niners last road game could also end up being their most important, especially if a chance to clinch the division is on the line (if my projections are right, San Fran would be 10-4 at this point). Seattle could be about 8-6 at this point (but actually, I think we'd have the better division record even if we lost this game - which would be the second tiebreaker after head-to-head). Seattle is a tough place to play. We squeaked out a win last year, and like mentioned before, have been great after losses. However, I believe this may be the first time w/ consecutive losses for the Niners in the Harbaugh era - Seattle 20-17

Week 17: vs. Arizona - Arizona will likely just be looking to play spoiler at this point - a far cry from their 4-0 start (which most folks had an idea was somewhat fraudulent). I don't see San Fran losing three straight. If they haven't clinched the division by now, they will in Week 17. San Fran 31, Arizona 10


We'll see how my projections go. If I'm right on all of these (highly unlikely), the Niners will be 11-5 and likely looking at a #2 or #3 seed in the playoffs. Compared to my 9-7 projection and #4 seed, I'd say that my predictions have some faults to them.

Predicted seeds (and records) in NFC:

1. Atlanta (14-2)
2. Green Bay (I believe they will overtake the Bears) (12-4)
3. San Fran (11-5)
4. New York Giants (10-6)
5. Chicago (11-5)
6. Seattle (10-6)

If this happens, we're looking at a potential division game in the playoffs - Seattle at San Fran. Seattle has two of the best corners in the league (up there w/ Chicago). This would be a bloody playoff game.

If you have differing thoughts, please let me know.