Saturday, December 8, 2012

From Hunter to Hunting, LL Cool LMJ (Ladies Love Cool LaMichael James) & Week 14 Thoughts

Niners Nation seems torn over who should be starting at quarterback - the veteran Alex Smith or Colin Kaepernick, the unproven but more talented second-year QB who replaced a concussed Smith a month ago and has been named the starter once again.

Let's not focus on this for a minute - the media are focusing on this enough...too much if you ask me. Blame goes around to everyone for Sunday's loss to the Rams, particularly the lack of a running game in the second half (outside of a couple of Kaepernick scrambles) and some dumb play-calling - why have Colin pitch it in that situation when the play-calling had been to minimize risk the entire half/game?

There is a story I'd like to turn your attention to. The real story of what could be the Niners' demise, the story that most people (even a lot of Niners fans) are ignoring is the loss of Kendall Hunter, who as Frank Gore's complimentary back, averaged 5.2 yards/carry on 71 attempts. The void he left was felt last week when Gore, who rushed for 914 yards in 11 games with Hunter as his backup, had a season high in carries (23), but only totaled 58 yards (a season low 2.5 yards/carry).This included a terrible second half showing of 13 carries and 18 yards. It's only a one game sample, but I believe the loss of Hunter should be spoken about a lot more than whatever quarterback the Niners decide to line up under center.

Solutions for RB

The Niners have a few options after Gore that they can go with:

This is aside from using Kaepernick in running situations, like they did last week (9 carries, 84 yards). I do believe that as long as CK is starting - which I think will be the rest of the year and beyond, we will see a handful of designed runs for him that will net huge plays in each game.

Brandon Jacobs: He's only appeared in two games, getting a total of 5 carries for 7 yards. Any reasonable football fan will tell you that Jacobs is not a guy that can be counted on to "spell" Gore, or even be trusted to take a couple of series off of Gore's plate like Hunter did. I do not like him as the second option at all and I worry that our offense will suffer greatly if Jacobs remains the second option. No other running back besides Gore got carries besides Jacobs (4 carries for 6 yards against the Rams).

Anthony Dixon: He's been active for all 12 games, but only averages a carry per game - primarily used as a blocker. Like Jacobs, he's really not a serious threat to take away carries from Gore.

LaMichael James: He remains the enigma of the 49ers backfield. He hasn't be activated for any games yet this year - still awaiting that elusive first career carry. It's a carry that many of us Niners fans hope will be the first of many great ones w/ the team. If he shows the same explosiveness that he did with Oregon, we will have a great dilemma on our hands in the near future when deciding who to make our primary back - Hunter or James.

As crazy as it might sound to say, I believe James is the key for the 49ers offense going forward. His running style and speed is similar to Hunter's, a change of pace that is necessary and not seen with Jacobs (who has a similar style to Gore except for the simple fact that Jacobs sucks) or Dixon. He might have to shake off a little rust, and the Niners' matchups coming up aren't the easiest - against the Dolphins (3.7 yards allowed/carry - 4th best), Patriots (3.9/carry - 8th best), Seattle (which allows 4.5/carry) & Arizona (4.1/carry). As a whole, these games should provide the Niners with a true test as to whether they can rely on James in a Hunter-esque role in January when "The Tournament" starts.


Predictions for Week 14

As many know at this point, Harbaugh has been a machine, especially when it comes to getting his team's best efforts after losing the week before. Following his 5 previous regular season losses, the Harbaugh-led Niners have notched a victory in all of those following games, winning by a combined 106-17 in those matchups. The amazing stat (as if allowing 3.4 points per game in the game following a loss wasn't enough) is that in those games, the defense has allowed a total of ZERO TOUCHDOWNS. What he has done and been able to get out of this team is simply remarkable.

I do believe that the Dolphins will break that TD streak, but will likely only notch one, maybe two tops. Hunter may be out, but the defense will still continue to roll. I see a 20-13, 27-13 type of game here for the Niners. I really hope that they can get James going this week, because I don't think Gore will be able to continue to pile up carries like he did last week. The more carries he gets, the worse the Niners chances of winning will be.


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