Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Channeling Bill Walsh & A Look Towards SF/GB matchup

I hope this is a sight that us Niners fans will see, except with Jim Harbaugh being hoisted on top.


On my flight home from my 30th birthday Vegas trip, I read Building a Champion by Bill Walsh, and it was well worth the read for any football fan, especially 49ers fans.

The book covers his entire coaching career, allowing us to see how much of a genius the man was. His building of the 49ers from a team that had as much talent as an expansion team to a consistent Super Bowl contending team in only a couple of years was nothing short of miraculous.

Here are a few things I took away from it that (a) I didn't know going into my read or (b) apply to current football stories/situations:


  1. Walsh liked to use plays from the past. As an assistant with the Bengals in the late 1960s, Walsh would look at plays on tape that had died out about twenty years earlier. His logic was that coaches would not prepare for plays that they have never experienced or seen on tape. This makes so much sense, yet I never thought of it. I have to believe coaches who can effectively look at the past in such a manner to design plays have a significant advantage versus those who don't.
  2. Bill Walsh had a great coaching tree. I knew this going in, but forgot the extent of the tree. I went online and looked at the complete tree and was amazed. Many current coaches (including both Harbaughs) come from some branch of the tree. Not only that, but many of these coaches have won (or at least appeared in) Super Bowls: Mike Holmgren (one title); Jim Fassel; Sam Wyche; George Seifert (two titles); Andy Reid; John Fox; Mike McCarthy (one title); John Gruden (one title); Mike Shanahan (two titles); Brian Billick (one title); Tony Dungy (one title); Mike Tomlin (two titles); and Lovie Smith.

    By my count, that's 13 coaches from this tree who have made the Super Bowl, with 11 titles in this coaching tree since 1989 (basically once every other year since Walsh retired). With many of the Walsh tree still alive (the Harbaughs, John Fox, Gary Kubiak, Mike McCarthy and Mike Smith), #12 could be right around the corner.

    I found this on Wikipedia - the bottom part of each branch shows many of these familiar names coaching today:File:Bill Walsh Coaching Tree.svg

  3. Walsh's rise (and continued success) through the coaching ranks seems to be the path that Jim Harbaugh is following. Don't take this as an insult. I know Harbaugh doesn't have the coaching longevity and success that Walsh had, but his ascent is similar to Walsh's, with both having a brief successful coaching stint at Stanford before going to coach the 49ers. Harbaugh had more success in his first year as coach, but he had much more talent than Walsh did.
  4. Another Harbaugh/Walsh comparison - the QB controversy: Harbaugh experienced his first "controversy" (although it seems to be more media/fan driven than anything) much earlier in his 49ers coaching career than Walsh did with Joe Montana and Steve Young. In Walsh's case, he was able to avoid the brunt of the controversy and hand that off to George Seifert (Montana was traded to Kansas City in the 1990s while Young helped the Niners win their 5th Super Bowl in 1995).

    One thing I can say about both coaches - they both seem to have a great handle on the quarterback position, which is the most important position to get right in the NFL. Walsh had an eye for talent - he brought Ken Anderson (one of the best QBs not in the Hall of Fame) to the Bengals in the 1970s, drafted Montana in the third round and traded for Steve Young for a few mid-round picks. Harbaugh has had his own Luck (literally, the Andrew version, while at Stanford anyways) and seems to have a potentially great QB with Kaepernick.

There were also some other stories that I found fascinating - his description of being chastised during the latter half of his stay in San Fran and feeling like there was really no way for the media to eventually turn on a coach seemed to mirror some current coaches who got fired (Andy Reid & Lovie Smith).

All in all, the Bill Walsh book set the tone for what will hopefully be a fantastic Saturday in 49er Country.

Quick Analysis for Saturday's game: Forget the Packers game in Week 1. So much is different now than the opener, most notably the switch from Alex Smith to Colin Kaepernick. After a slow start, the Packers finished strong down the stretch (outside of their Week 17 loss to the Vikings).

My biggest concern (outside of special teams - signing Billy Cundiff....yikes)  for the Niners heading into the game is Justin Smith, whose absence against the Seahawks in Week 16 was very noticeable. Justin's playing through the injury, although I don't think the Packers have the run game to expose this potential deficiency.

I do worry about Aaron Rodgers obviously, but I feel that we should be able to defend them better than most teams. I'm expecting the Niners to establish the run and have many long possessions that keep the Packers offense off the field and out of rhythm.

I look for this to be a lower-scoring game than earlier this season and lower than most Niners game have been down the stretch (total points in Niners games went from 36.5 in the first eight games to 47.25 in the last eight, which coincides with the change in QB). I see the Niners squeezing out a victory 21-17 to advance to their second consecutive NFC Championship game, where they will meet the Atlanta Falcons. I expect the Packers game to be the best game of the weekend for NFL fans.

In the other games, I have a gut feeling on Baltimore pulling off the upset (Peyton's teams seem to fail right around this time of year in this same situation) and Houston keeping it close, but ultimately losing to, the Patriots.


I hope my prediction (at least about the Niners victory) is correct. I will be at the Shamrock in the River North area drinking to victory or defeat either way. Feel free to join me.

Who's got it better than us? Noooooooo-body.

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