Vegas Perspective & Week 4 Thoughts

Super Bowl Odds

As expected, the Niners' odds fell slightly after their loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. As of today, the Niners are in a four-way tie for second-best Super Bowl odds at 8/1. Houston at 5/1 grabs the top spot this week, followed by the 8/1 cluster of San Fran, GB, NE and Atlanta.

The biggest jump in odds since the start of the year has been San Fran's division rival Arizona, who opened around 150/1 in the preseason and are currently 27/1 to win the Super Bowl. That's what a 3-0 start, including wins over two strong offenses (NE & Philly), will do. Dating back to Week 9 of last year, Arizona has the best record in the NFL (10-2). The only thing holding them back is an average QB, but I thought the same thing about Alex Smith last year.

Week 4 Thoughts

The Niners head to MetLife Stadium for a Week 4 match-up against the Revis-less New York Jets. Sanchez has completed about half of his passes, the running game has been quite stagnant, yet the Jets sport a 2-1 record.

I believe this will be a low-scoring, ugly game. I see a 19-17, 19-13 score, with the Niners prevailing. I believe the Niners will keep the ball on the ground way more this game around than in Week 3. The Jets have allowed 4.6 yards/carry. Look for the play action to be a big part of the game plan for San Francisco (assuming they establish the run early), especially with Revis Island not occupying one half of the field.

On the Jets side of the ball, their non-existent running game will disappear even further against a punishing SF run defense - which did not allow a rushing touchdown for the first 14 weeks of last season but allowed its first score already on a QB run last week. Sanchez doesn't scare me - and no, neither does Tebow.

The current line on the game has the Niners as a 4-point favorite, with an over/under of 40 points. I'm taking a betting hiatus, but my favorite bet would be the under here. It will be ugly, but the Niners will pull out the W.

Bolek (Hypothetical) Bet: Under 40 points.

49FF - Weak 3 Recap/Thoughts for Next Week

Entering Sunday morning, I wasn't sure if I was going to catch much (if any) of the Niners' road matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. The past few days, I've been out of town at my girlfriend's cousin's wedding. I was happy that we would be leaving at a time where I'd be able to catch at least the second half - one in which surely they'd be possessing a sizable lead and play the similar type of game they played in the first two weeks - balanced offense, suffocating defense.

As I was driving from Princeton,IL to my friend Tim's in Monee (about 100 mile drive), I was doing what all those commercials and cell phone ad campaigns tell you not to do - hitting refresh on my phone as me and Jen made our ride to watch the rest of the games and the late games. From the onset, I started to suspect that this game may not go as planned.

One of the first plays I see as I hit refresh on the ScoreTap app on my Android was an opening drive touchdown, with the Vikings scoring on a 1-yard TD pass to Kyle Rudolph. Ok, no need to worry at this point, although not the start I wanted.

Then, after the Niners booted in a field goal to start the second quarter, the Vikings increased their lead to 14-3 with a Christian Ponder touchdown run. How the hell did that happen? I figured it had to be a broken play (not a designed run), although I know Ponder has the ability to be a very athletic quarterback.

The scoring situation didn't seem to get any better - a missed field goal (which I later found out was blocked) led to the Vikings kicking one of their own to up their lead to 14 at the half.

At this point is when I got to my friend's place and started watching the game, which obviously started more promising than the first half. I was happy with the field goal to start the half, but I really thought we needed to get 6 there. We got it the very next drive, but that ended up being the last of our offense for the day.

Random Week 3 Reactions (from what I saw)

I know the team fell behind early...but I don't understand the disparity in the pass/rush attempt ratio. 38 passing plays (35 attempts + 3 times sacked) to 20 rushing plays was not the type of ball that helped us win the first two games (64 pass plays to 59 rushes). This seems to be a team that functions best when there is a balance.

No reason to panic. I know fellow 49FF blogger Nick thought this would be an easy win. I had my doubts - thinking it may be a trap game, with the Vikings treating the game as their Super Bowl. I still had the Niners winning by 10 and I still bet the Niners to cover the -6.5 spread (quite foolishly - knowing what I know about 'trap lines'). Every team (even the best) are going to lose at least 2-3 games this year. Given the Niners schedule this year, I expect a few more for sure (hopefully no more than 4-5 more). It's natural to want to panic as a fan when your team looks mortal for the first time in the short season thus far, but just look at everything that has happened so far this year. Per usual, this league is a parody-driven league. I consider this a hiccup along the way to another successful regular season.

I wish I would have watched the Arizona Cardinals game. That was one of the only late games we didn't have on in my friend's three TV setup downstairs. I was curious to see how Arizona would take on a Philly squad that has been good at moving the ball but bad at protecting it. With this in mind, I picked up the Arizona D in many of my fantasy leagues - paid off nicely I'd say. Why I wish I could have seen them:

1. I've heard their defense talked up as an elite unit. Same with their special teams.
2. I wanted to see if their squad had similar lineage to the 49ers 2011 season - where an average/slightly above average offense would be carried to the playoffs (perhaps a surprising division crown) by such a defense.
3. I wanted to see if I needed to worry about them overtaking us this year for the NFC West crown.

Even though I didn't get a chance to see them, based solely on result, I feel like it is time to worry about them. A 3-0 start with a solid defense, one that can keep them in most games, one that manhandled Tom Brady and Mike Vick in back-to-back weeks...hard not to take such a team seriously. I hope I'm wrong and they pull a 2011 Bills and they tail off into the sunset after a hot start - but I'm doubting it.

Looking ahead: Week 4 (at NYJ)

The Niners catch a major break as Darrelle Revis is assumed to be lost for the season due to an ACL injury suffered in the Jets' 23-20 OT win against the Dolphins. Revis automatically shuts down half of the field and makes the elite of the elite wide receivers look like practice squad material. I'm hoping Alex Smith can bounce back and take advantage of this injury and also hoping Harbaugh dedicates more offensive plays to Gore/Hunter.

I see it being an ugly game - some kind of ugly score like 19-17 winning it. I'll say the Niners take it. I don't care how they do it - they all count the same in the standings.

:Let's get 'em next week. No one's got it better than us!

Prediction - Week 3 Minnesota

Well since I live in Minnesota I've been "blessed" with the "honor" of listening to local sports pundits talk about this game from the opponents perspective. I'll let each and every one of you in on a secret. Those talking heads all think this is going to be a close game. I have laughed every time they've dissected this game and I am laughing right now as I see it sitting on this screen. There is, NO WAY, this is a close game. I'll tell you why.

1) Minnesota's strength is running the ball. Whether it be AP, Percy or Gerhart, they have the ability to run the ball. The last time I checked San Francisco is pretty good at stopping the run. They don't give up the big plays and you cant run the ball outside of the tackles on this defense. I expect Minnesota to continue trying to run the ball all game long, but really with no success.

With point 1 proven to be neutralized, we can now discuss my second point.

2) Minnesota will have no run game so how easy is it going to be for Dashon and Carlos to sit back there and cover the receivers. What the Niners are doing great this year is making teams one dimensional and crushing that one dimension. Ponder is the current version of Alex Smith (Schmiddy and I have discussed this and concur that he is the next Smith) and will have his worst day of the season. As improved as he is this year I don't see him having a good day tomorrow.

3) The best chance Minnesota has to get in the end zone is with their kicker, kicking field goals. He'll get plenty of chances, but you cant trade field goals for TD's. We know that first hand from last years Niners squad.

I think this game gets ugly and I think that it sets the tone for this long road trip through Youngstown, OH to next week's game at the Jets. Alex Smith gets over 300 yards passing, Moss gets 2 TD's, Davis gets another, Crabtree gets his first this year, Gore goes over 100 again and the Defense gets in the end zone.

Niners 38 Vikes 9

Who's got it better then us?
NOOOOOOOO-Bodddddyyy

Aaron Rodgers Sucks

http://www.tmz.com/2012/09/18/boyz-ii-men-aaron-rodgers-packers-49ers-bet/

http://www.tmz.com/2012/09/20/aaron-rodgers-boys-ii-men-chicken-sandwich/

Going into Week 3

So maybe I'm just feeling the effects of a dominant win last night, but I just cant get past the thought that this Niner team has what it takes to win every week.

Last year as the season progressed I kept my fingers crossed that they would do just enough to stay in the game on offense and that the D would make a stop, force a turn over or score some points for us. Not this year. I expect the D to give up under 80 yards rushing weekly and limiting any big passing plays to near non existence. I now expect the offense to move the ball up and down the field. I see a strong offensive line that is making a name for itself in protection and making holes for the running back. I see a wide receiving core that outside of a couple drops in each of the first two games have looked very strong. Crabtree has been the best and Moss/Manningham have held similar roles in each of the first two games, but Vernon Davis has been AMAZING!

The rotation of Gore & Hunter has proven to be a monster. Coming into this season I thought the Niners knew something about Gore's production declining, but little did I know that they were on to something bigger. A fresh Frank Gore has been a very good Frank Gore. I like where we're heading with this.

Lastly, can enough be enough with the "game manager" title for Alex?! He's proven his worth over the last season, playoffs and these two games. He is heading into an uncharted land of efficiency and I'm glad we have him, not Peyton.

I think we win more then the 10 games I predicted and I think we are on the verge of something special for this season.

The Vegas Perspective After Week 2/Quick Week 3 Preview

Following their second straight win to start the 2012 season, the San Francisco 49ers vaulted to the top of the Super Bowl best odds on 5dimes.eu. The Niners are now 11/2 favorites to win the Super Bowl according to the offshore gambling site. The Texans and Patriots, who got upset by the Cardinals on Sunday, have the second best odds at 13/2, with the Packers (15/2) & Falcons (14/1) rounding out the top 5.

While it's not a true measure of a team's chances of winning the Super Bowl, it's nice to see that the gambling gods that be showing the respect to San Fran that they deserve. After all, the 49ers have beaten two playoff teams from last year in pretty impressive fashion. You may see the scoreboard and see the Niners only won by 8 each game, but in both games, the Niners had their way with their opponent offensively and defensively. They've won the battles in the trenches and been able to make two Pro Bowl quarterbacks look "just good" instead of All Pro - an accomplishment for any team.

All that being said, this upcoming game against the Vikings is not one to sleep upon. Minnesota may treat this as their Super Bowl - given their relatively low expectations for the season. The one thing I like about this team though is the veteran presence. I don't think any of the leaders on offense and defense will let their teammates take the Vikings for granted. Plus, Harbaugh has shown in his coaching career (in both college and pros) to get the best out of his players at all times.

Preliminary prediction for Week 3 is San Francisco 27, Minnesota 17. It may be closer than most people would think, but I think the Vikings will give a spirited effort. Luckily, their strength (Adrian Peterson) could be cancelled out by the Niners' stalwart and punishing run defense, which continues to contain opponents and make them completely one dimensional. I could see AP reaching about 60/70 yards, but that's about it.

The current Vegas line for the game has San Francisco as a touchdown favorite, with an over/under of 43 points.

I wasn't quite sure what to expect out of my first visit to The Stick.  Having been warned by fellow FF members Nick Anthony and Brian Bolek, and having read/heard many less than flattering reviews of the stadium, I knew I would be in for an interesting experience.  Here it is: the Great, the Good and the Ugly.

BEER- stella, anchor steam, lagunitas ipa, shock top all on tap.  awesome.  $10 for what appeared to be a 16oz beer?  not awesome.  i had an anchor steam followed by a lagunitas- delicious.  i was then feeling good enough to venture into the dark, cold waters of the Bud Light.  cheaper ($8.50) and 20oz instead of 16oz. 

FOOD- forewarned by nick anthony (our exchange on this topic was brief...me- how's the food at the stick...nick- terrible), i was nervous.  in fact, considered the start time of the game (5:20 PT), we had planned to go to a "nearby" bar 2 miles from the stadium to grab some food/drinks before the game.  more on that story later...but, katie and i did share a massive sausage (insert joke here) which tasted ok, and chicken tenders with fries that were pretty "terrible" but were made less "terrible" by the 4 beers i had at that point. 

AREA- frightening.  i live in chicago.  at my past employer, our office home healthcare service territory covered ALL of chicago, and since we served many medicaid patients, we covered mostly south side and west side patient.  the south and west side of chicago can and probably should be compared to a third world country.  i was in and out of neighborhoods/homes fairly regularly seeing patients and families.  having said that, i was intimidated by the area around the stick.  so much so that as we go close to the bar i had planned on going to, called 7 Mile House, i couldn't go through with it.  my wife's eyes were getting bigger with fear the closer we go, and so were mine. so many shady people at each passing street.  even police officers seem to know to just stay away from some of these streets.  we got out of the bus, and started to make our walk to the bar, only half a mile away.  after about 10 seconds, we turned around and went right back to the bus stop.  1 minute later we were back on another bus heading back towards The Stick.  best decision ever.  traffic getting to the stadium is notoriously miserable, so once we got within a mile or so on the bus and saw packs of niners fans, we felt safe getting out.  the walk to the stadium from this point forward was fine.  once we got close to the stadium, i was very impressed with what i saw.  tons of passionate niners fans absolutely partying their asses off- it was like being in the middle of mardi gras, spring break and a football inspired rave all at once.  people were nuts, in a good "this is intense" kind of way.  clearly people had been there all day long drinking.  sweet. 

STADIUM- old.  small.  crumbling.  AWESOME.  i have heard other fans say that the stadium sucks, and while i get that, i was in love with the stadium.  it probably helped that our seats were nearly even with the end zone in the upper deck...first row.  our row was 2 seats, nobody in front of us.  actually, they had the area roped off and wouldn't let people walk by during gameplay.  it was very cool.  akin to being in your own personal box, without the free food/drink and outdoors instead of indoors.  the views from our seats were great and i would highly recommend them to others.  UR04 row 1.  the fans were louder than i expected.  again, having heard announcers, analysts and fans express disappointment over the noise volume of the crowd in the stadium in the past, i was surprised.  having said that, it was the home opener, and sunday night football.  so i would have expected nothing less.  the jaguars at home or something like that would be an interesting case study.  compared to the seahawks, i am sure our home field advantage is nothing.  nonetheless, the crowd was really into the game and cleared frustrated stafford into multiple timeouts due to not being able to hear.  pretty sweet.  the views around the concourses of the oceans and mountains was also very cool.  my wife was especially impressed with the sunset, stealing the camera for 5 minutes to snap some extra pics from the concourse.  as i told nick earlier today, after having been to a game, i am even more disappointed in the fact that the niners are leaving candlestick for santa clara.  not having the stadium downtown is just unacceptable.  there seems to be plenty of spare near AT&T park to tear down a few old worthless/rotting piers.  it should have been done, but i think corporate interest/$'s pulled them to santa clara.  i am glad to have experienced a game at the stick, in san fran, the way it should be.  my wife made an interesting comparison of Candlestick to Wrigley Field (she's a cubs fan).  it's not a bad comparison, in my opinion.  though seemingly falling apart, i loved the classic feel of everything, including the small scoreboard.  it made the game more important, and it felt like football all the way through. 

all in all, what a great experience.  the niners took home the victory and it was a really enjoyable game.  they could have won by more, but the overall close feel of the game made every play extremely important, which was great.  i can now check Candlestick Park off my bucket list, and i can put a W in parentheses next to it. 

WHO'S GOT IT BETTER THAN US.....NOOOOOBODY!!!!!!!!!

thanks for reading

GO NINERS

Random Niner Thoughts Following Week 2

Some random thoughts a couple hours removed from the Niners 27-19 win over the Lions.

• It's the first time since 2009 in which San Fran started a year 2-0 (ended 8-8). Almost had a chance at 3-0, except Brett Favre had to break our hearts. Brad and Nick were there for that one. I'm still peeved at the conservative play-calling late in the game, running three straight with Glen Coffee to force Minnesota to use all of its timeouts, only to punt the ball back to them. This included a run on 3rd and 6 against a defense that Coffee was averaging just a shade above 2 yards/run. I digress completely....crap.
  
  Week 3 opponent this year? The Vikings. In the Metrodome. Let's hope for a much different result in both the game and the season.
  
• Speaking of Mike Singletary - Ok, no one was speaking of him. In fact, most people want to forget about his up-and-down two-year stint as Niners coach. However, I have to give him credit for kick-starting a new era of Niners football, particularly with the attitude readjustment he gave to Vernon Davis. VD's career started out poorly, and it never looked like he would ever live up to his promise. Singletary lit a fire under his ass, and Davis has been a complete beast since. Anything that comes out of his career is in large part to Singletary. Davis has become the key component in a much improved passing offense, the best it's looked since the Jeff Garcia days.
  
• Where was Randy Moss? I had to double check the stat sheet. He did record a catch for 14 yards, but is not yet a serious option in 2012 for Alex Smith, who has developed quite the connection with Davis (3 TDs) and Michael Crabtree (13 catches, 143 yards) so far. Entering the season, I didn't expect much from Moss, who last played in 2010, rocky stints with three separate teams. I haven't heard anything bad about Moss. I'm hoping he's providing the veteran leadership that some of these younger wide receivers could benefit from.
  
• The last time I remember the Niners having this effective of an offense and defense at once...was the last time they won the Super Bowl in 1995. Maybe my memory has faded, but just on quick thought, I can't remember any other better overall Niners squads since then.
  
• I think I'm going to be a couple games off on my Niners prediction. There's still time for that to come true, but everything I've seen this year would indicate they will finish better than my 9-7 projection. I still think we'll lose a handful of games. Perhaps we don't reach the 13 win mark from last year, but that won't mean last year's team was better. Our division has improved (Ariz is 9-2 in their last 11; Seattle 6-4 in their last 10; Rams will be more competitive with Fisher as coach), so a couple losses in division wouldn't shock me. But I'm upping my projection of the Niners to 11-5.
  
• Frank Gore - still bringing it - I believe Frank Gore reads obscure 49ers fan predictions from out-of-market fans. Before the season started, I said that Gore would succumb to Kendall Hunter this year. What we've seen from Gore through 2 weeks, I think I'll be eating crow. Gore is averaging 100 yards/game on 6+ yards per carry, with a touchdown in each game. Things can obviously change, but barring injury, I don't think Gore is giving anything up this year.

I hope you're all enjoying the start of this year as much as I am. This year has potential to be a special year. I hope to share my joyous observations throughout the year (and hopefully into February).

Week 2 - Detroit (prediction)

Nick Predicts: Well ladies and gentlemen, here it is, Week 2 against the Lions. I almost said the hated Lions, but know that Coach Harbaugh wants us all to move on from last year. So I will move on. I am not one bit nervous about this game. Megatron is nicked up, Stafford is coming off a three pick game and our team is coming off a very big road win to start their home schedule.

After breaking down the tape from last week's game I really want to see a better performance from Joe Staley. He got absolutely abused by Clay Matthews and with my expectation that he'll have to block Cliff Avril, he'll need to rebound. Avril is a good D-Lineman and he can make life tough for Alex if he gets the pressure. Other then this I expect much of the same from last week.

Alex will throw the ball about 30 times and we'll see a rotation of Hunter/Gore that will keep Frank fresh for late in the game rock pounding.

Player of the Game: Randy Moss. This is 100% a gut feeling, but I think that with it being his first home game and everything he has the potential to have a big game. I also think that there isn't anyone in that secondary that can stop our receivers. I just think Randy has the biggest day.

Not so much player of the Game: O-Line. I have a feeling they'll give up some sacks that will ultimately impact Alex's timing. Their play wont be a big issue, but I expect them to be the weakest link on the field.

Niners 31
Lions 13


Brian's Best Bet: I must say that the Niners impressed me last week. We pwned the Packers in just about every facet of the very sloppy refereed game (I'm not a person who blames refs ever - they were equal opportunity suckfest for both teams).

This week's matchup is against another NFC North team. Detroit squeaked by in Week 1 against the Rams and feature the Stafford/Megatron hookup. Probably the best QB/WR combo in the league, but beyond that, I'm not horribly worried about the Lions offense. Kevin Smith had a solid game in the opener, but San Fran shuts down running backs. If Smith is to have a good day, it'd be in the passing game.

The Niners got me believing after Week 1. It can be a dangerous thought I suppose, especially with the first week being the easiest week to overreact to for just about every NFL fan (after a win - Bears; or loss - Packers).

I do think the Niners will be able to make the Lions one dimensional just like we've been able to do for much of the past 19 games (including playoffs). However, the Lions' one dimension is a pretty solid one.

I like the Niners' chances this week. Last year, we were a solid home team (8-1, including 8-0-1 against the spread). I give the Niners a 10 point win.

Niners 30
Lions 20

Fantasy Stud: Michael Crabtree - Last week, the wide receiver from Texas Tech notched 7 catches for 76 yards, but more importantly for fantasy players, he got nine total targets - next highest total was five. I'm hoping this is his breakout year. Randy Moss may get the national attention, but I'm thinking Crabtree brings the results (at least for this game).

Fantasy Dud: Kevin Smith (Det) - If you had a choice between Smith and other running backs this week in your lineup, I would have leaned towards the other back. The Niners front four shuts down running games. If you still have the option to put someone else in their lineup, I'd recommend it.

Niner Thoughts While Watching GB/Chi

Watching the Bears/Packers game right now. Packers don't look like the same offensive juggernaut that they have been the past couple years. Obviously the season is young, so that could easily change.

But what the Packers have been doing this game that they didn't do against the Niners is play some defense. Some of that may be attributed to the Bears offensive line, which hasn't given Cutler any time to throw. A common sight tonight has been 2nd down and a mile for the Bears - quite the opposite for the Niners, who were able to muster 377 total yards and 22 first downs against the same defense.

If the Niners can maintain the offensive efficiency they displayed in the opener and the Packers devolve somewhat as an offense (I don't think they have a good enough defense to overcome any sort of dip in offense), I believe they will be the odds-on favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

Yeah, yeah...I had the Eagles as my Super Bowl pick - not sure why. I'm already ditching that.

The Vegas Perspective after Week 1

Before the season opened, the Niners were about 13/1 (+1300) to win the Super Bowl, according to 5dimes.eu. I don't remember the exact number of teams ahead of them in odds, but the Niners were roughly 5th or 6th overall based on chance to win.

The season opening victory at Green Bay definitely dipped that line lower. In fact, according to the site, the Niners are the second favorite to win the 2013 Lombardi at 13/2 (+650) (or 6.5/1 for the math-impaired) behind the Patriots at 5/1.

Green Bay, which was co-favorites with the Patriots entering the year, fell to +825 (4th overall).

The Niners still have a rough schedule ahead of them, but it's very promising that they were able to hold down the Packers pretty good (given the strength of their passing game) while being able to establish a solid offensive game plan for the opener.

San Fran continues their tough road as it hosts Detroit on Sunday Night Football (NBC, 7:30pm).  The current line is San Francisco -6.5, with an over/under of 46.

A 2-0 start against two playoff teams from 2011 will definitely raise my overall expectations for this season. Let's hope we pick up where we left off in the opener.

Green Bay - Game Day

Good Morning Fans,

Sorry for the slow update on the game day experience. It took a little while to come down from cloud 9! What a win. What an experience.

Lambeau Field is everything that you've ever heard. The stadium and the experience is a one of a kind. We got to the park 3 hours early and walked from one of the neighborhoods where you could pay to park on someones lawn for $10-$50/car. The cost was more if that home let you use their bathroom or tailgate in their yard. We walked the parking lot and had some great football discussions with Niner and Packer fans.

It is so cliche, but once you walk through that dark tunnel to the well lit field it takes your breath away. The Packers had put either a green or gold shirt on every seat (seat is used loosely because every seat is a bleacher seat), so it was cool to look around and see each section of the stadium as a green or gold section. Getting in there early enough we got to watch the Niners warm up. Harbaugh made an appearance.

We grabbed a beer and a foot long brat, that was easily the best brat I've ever had and went to our seats. Boyz II Men smashed the national anthem and the jets brought tears to some eyes. One thing to point out is the ovation Donald Driver got during player introductions. It was HUGE, to say the least. This non-Packer fan got goose bumps from the love they showed this guy.

To cap off an incredible trip, We won! Sorry, we dominated this great team top to bottom. When we play them again it wont be this easy. I highly encourage everyone to go to Green Bay for a game, whether or not you're seeing your favorite team, it is a must.

Who's got it better then us???!!!
NOOOOOO-BODY!

Live Blog for Niners/Packers

3 and out...tough start.  At least Andy Lee is an incredible punter!

...followed by a penalty.  Followed by a Packers first down.  Let's go D!

Weird to see Cedric Benson in a Packers uni

2 bad calls...Harbaugh is disturbingly angry

now a bad challenge- weird start for the niners

watching randy moss catch passes in a niners uni is amazing

BB's call on hunter outrushing gore this year is looking pretty good...

akers for 3...looks familiar

gore looks slooow compared to hunter, but always finishes runs so well to make up for it

i think bj raji ate bj raji in the offseason

 how old is charles woodson?

i wouldn't be surprised one bit if clay matthews has a closet full of skeletons (literally) somewhere...he's a scary looking dude

RANDY MOSS TD.

Jordy Nelson is white trash- literally

Predictions - Week 1

This game is too difficult to predict with the utmost confidence. The only thing I know for sure that I'll see Boyz II Men sing the national anthem.

Will the explosive Packer offense be too much for the Niner D to stop? Can the Niner D make life too difficult for Mr. Rodgers? The unknowns outweigh the absolutes in this match up, but if I am predicting this match up I'm going with a score of 24-20, 49ers. I think the new and improved Alex Smith led offense will move up and down the field, but wont be as dominant in week 1 as they will in week 6. The depth at running back will be on display and I really think that we'll have a lot of yards on the ground. I still like this score of 24-20, but if the Packers wide receiver are allowed to run free then I see it flipping to a Packers win.

Player of the game: Aldon Smith. He is too quick and will be able to get to Rodgers at will. He will make life for the O-Line and A-Rodge very difficult.

The not so much player of the game: Vernon Davis. He is THE guy and will be keyed on. With Woodson moving to safety, he'll be free to watch Davis from a distance and get in a position to limit his big play ability.

Predictions Go Here - Week 1 (San Fran at Green Bay)

Brian:

I'm of the mindset that the Packers are going to be really pissed off this game based on how their season of high expectations to repeat ended and will come out of the gates hot in the season opener at home. I showed you the numbers of good/great QBs against us last year - I think Rodgers puts up 300-350 w/ about 3 TDs. I really want the Niners to start the season with a win like they did last year, but I'm just not feeling it. I hope I'm wrong though, but I'm writing this one from the gut. I want to see Alex Smith get better in the red zone. For this game, I see his struggles continuing over from last year.

Packers 31-16

Fantasy Outlook:

Fantasy Stud: David Akers - Last year, Akers led the league with 44 field goals on 52 attempts, thanks in large part to an anemic red zone offense. The next closest totals by any teams in field goals made was 33, attempts was 44 - a half field goal made/attempt than the second place team in each category. This is a category that needs improvement this year (i.e. needs to get lower - MORE TDS!) if the Niners are going to make a legitimate Super Bowl run. There are more high scoring teams on our schedule this season, so there's no room for trading touchdowns for field goals this year. For Week 1, I see Akers kicking 3 field goals.

Fantasy Dud: San Francisco D - If you're in a league that has yards as a category, benching the Niners D wouldn't be a bad play for one week. Even regular leagues with just points allowed, it might not be a bad move to see if Buffalo, NY Jets or Seattle D is available. While the Niners were world beaters against the run last year, they allowed 300+ yards to many of the good/great QBs last year. Rodgers is as elite as they come, and to expect anything less than 300 yards from him is hard to come by as a thought. They should be able to stop Benson/Starks/Green on the ground, but Rodgers is another monster all together.

Green Bay - week 1, day 1

I've now officially been in Green Bay for 10 hours and 57 minutes and I've seen quite a bit. One thing I am impressed with is the football knowledge and loyalty this town posses. I've spoken to women that don't look the part of "football fan" and had incredible football conversations. I hope that doesn't offend any of our female readers. I've been to lambeau field and seen their pro shop and hall of fame. Two things that I truly hope our Niners are going to incorporate into the new Google Park or Apple Field in 2014. I ran into the president if the Packers, mark Murphy, while he was giving a tour to some senior citizens and then 4th wide receiver James Jines shopping for what else, packer gear. A side note here, this organization has their logo on everything; cups to wine glasses, pajamas to jerseys and BBQ's to bedding.

Needless to say I am impressed and I haven't even been inside the stadium yet. We will begin tailgating at around noon tomorrow and I have been promised an experience for the ages capped by Boyz II Men singing the national anthem and a fly over.

I'll plan on posting some updates throughout the day! Niner Federation, who's got it better then us?! Noooo-body!!!

First 49er Fan Federation Fun!

It feels good to be here, surrounded by my fellow Niners faithful.  I have a challenge for my two fellow bloggers: we need to recruit more members that are niners fans!  Let's get the word out via facebook, twitter, fax and telegraph.  We can start small by getting to 10 Niners fan faithful members and go from there.  Now for a little 49er Fan Federation Fun!

The season is upon us, and we are upon the season.  48 hours from now I will be preparing for a weeklong vacation, and I will either be incredibly happy or quite disappointed.  The mood will tie directly to the outcome of the Niners-Packers season opener, of course.  One could argue that this is actually the toughest game on the schedule for the Niners this year.  One could also argue that this week's game will be a preview of the NFC Championship game.  It's hard to predict the future, but Vegas does agree with me: http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/futures/.

For the first time since 2002, I have confidence that my favorite team in the NFL has a fighting chance for a Super Bowl berth.  Yes, it has been 10 long years.  For proof of how challenging the 2000's were for us Niners fans, see:  http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sfo/.  As amazing as the 80's and 90's were, the 00's were equally anti-awesome.  Dennis Erickson, Mike Nolan and Mike Singeltary were all absolutely AWFUL coaches.  Has their been a trio of consecutive head coach hires worse than this in ANY major sport EVER?  You could say it's been a long road back...be on the lookout for a "2000's Era Niners Head Coach Misery" Post from me in the near future. 

But now, it's Harbaugh Nation.  For a tribute to my current favorite head coach in sports, see this link: http://blog.sfgate.com/thebigevent/2012/08/24/more-than-a-fad-the-tweets-of-jim-harbaugh/.  This is an incredible coach, and man.  Watching him turn this team around last year was really a thing of beauty.  His enthusiasm and joy for the game is second to none, and it rubs off on the entire team.  He's also very smart and his creativity is impressive.  And, who can forget this moment: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCdZGRD4mfI.  I can't wait to witness the post-game handshake live as I attend Niners-Lions in 9 days.  The Sunday Night Football, Home Opener for the Niners vs. the Lions. 

So many emotions come into play before a game like this: nervousness, excitement, fear, joy, and anger at aaron rodgers after his first incredible play that no D in the world (including the Niners) could have prevented.  I will provide a more in depth game preview Sunday before kickoff. 

4 bold 9ers Predictions (Brian)

Here are 4 9ers predictions that may go against the norm of traditional thinking. My boys may disagree with me, but that's why we have three voices in this blog:

1. Kendall Hunter will outrush Frank Gore this season - After years of failed backups for Frank Gore, I believe the Niners found their back of the future last year in Hunter. He has great speed and did well in limited time last year. As Gore gets up there in age and carries, I believe this will be the year where the torch is passed to another back, and that back will be Hunter.

2. Brandon Jacobs will not be on the team to finish the year - If you look at our running back depth (Gore, Hunter, LaMichael James, Anthony Dixon), I don't see Jacobs getting a lot of carries. On the Giants, he was never really a threat in the passing game like Gore, Hunter and James have been or will be. His best chance of sticking with the team would be as a goal-line or short-yardage back given his girth. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets moved or released, especially if the other backs make the impact I believe they can make.

3. Statistically speaking, San Fran will not have the best defense in the division. That's not to say the  Niners defense will suddenly become mediocre. I believe they'll still be one of the top 5-10 units in the league. However, our schedule this year will include much better QBs than last year. 

Here were the passing stats allowed by the Niners in games where they faced a good/great QB in 2011.

427 passing yards & 3 TDs to Romo/Dallas

416 passing yards & 2 TDs to Vick/Philly

311 passing yards & 2 TDs to Eli/NYG

305 passing yards to Big Ben/Pitt

Somehow, in these games, San Fran was able to go 3-1.They will consistently face better QBs this year, including: Eli, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Matt Stafford, and Jay Cutler. Last year, the Niners allowed 200 or less passing yards to 5 of their 6 divisional games, which speaks just as much to the lack of quality quarterbacks in the division as it does to our defense. I believe our rush defense will still be top 3, but I think overall (statistically speaking), Seattle may end up with the best defense in the division.

4. Colin Kaepernick will start in a few games this year. Yes, I know Alex Smith had a career year last year, but a career year of 3144 yards and 17 TDs in a season where he starts every game doesn't say much for Smith's career. Many of the quarterbacks that the Niners will face will have more yards and TDs in a 8-10 game span than that.

Smith was able to avoid turning the ball over last year (had a league best 1.1% interception rate in 2011), but he was terrible in the red zone, which resulted in David Akers being the most active field goal kicker last year. If Smith's red zone troubles continue, it will be difficult to beat some of these teams we face with good/elite quarterbacks. The Niners brought in Randy Moss, Mario Manningham & drafted AJ Jenkins to bolster the receiving core. While I believe our WR depth is better this year, I don't necessarily think that was the main reason for the red zone problems.

Smith has started all 16 games just twice in his seven-year career (including 2008, which he missed completely due to a shoulder injury), so in that regard, this isn't a bold declaration. However, with his 13-3 record on the resume now, Smith being replaced during the season is pretty out there. I believe Kaepernick will be given a look this year to see if he should be the quarterback entering 2013. Smith signed a three-year deal in the offseason, but anyone who follows football knows the contracts might as well be written on toilet paper.

Welcome to the 49er Fan Federation

Welcome to the 49ers Fan Federation - a trio of Niners fans composed of Brian Bolek, Brad Schmidgall & Nick Anthony.

People who have followed my B-Bo Knows blog know my deal. I'm a sports nut who in the past 5 years has developed a serious interest in sports investments (aka gambling) and fantasy sports in addition to my love of the 49ers. In this blog, I will try presenting a unique angle to the Niners that most of my friends would not know - from my opinions of who I think will be a fantasy football asset to what angle of a sports line I would consider betting in their games. As many of you know, I am not afraid to say if I don't like the Niners' chances in a given week. However, I can't be held responsible for your degenerate gambling ways, so don't cry to me if your bet loses. Of course I won't be wrong though, so it shouldn't be a problem.

I know Brad from my years at U of I in Champaign and after almost 8 years without seeing him, recently reconnected with him at a social event sponsored by an organization of which we are both members. He is friends with Nick, who introduces himself in the initial blog of 49FF. I don't believe I've met him, but based on his first entry, I will enjoy the energy that he brings as a fan.

All three of us will be going to Niners games at some point this year (separately). I will aim to get first-hand analysis from each of those games.

I'm aiming to get weekly predictions going with the gents. I'm not sure if they will predict the Niners to win every week, but hell, we're fans, so I can't blame them if they're predicting what they root for.

Please let us know if there's certain things you'd like us to write about as it relates to the 49ers. If you're a Niners fan, please let me know and I'd be glad to add you as an author.

Enjoy the blog.

Opening Weekend

I sit before you today, as if I were a kid on the eve of Christmas. It's been many years since I've had this feeling for an opening weekend of football. Don't get me wrong, I love the game and have for over 32 years. However, after what we saw last year with our beloved San Francisco 49ers there is no way to keep the feelings under wraps. I left Candlestick Park on that late, wet, January day in 2012 disappointed that the team had not booked themselves a trip to their sixth Super Bowl, which they surely would have won. I allowed myself the self pity that comes from being a life long fan, only for that walk from the stadium to the car. Upon arriving back at the car I realized, it was forgotten and time to look forward to next year. There was no reason to be disappointed or sad. Our day was coming! We had exceeded expectations. I've picked the Niners to win the NFC West for the last 5 years and only to see other "miracle" teams win it and make runs at the title only to come up short.

At the time of this post I am 48 hours from leaving for Green Bay to watch this team start their journey towards trophy number 6. I feel like come Sunday morning, when I wake up, it will be the best Christmas EVER! It's like when mom starts dating this new rich guy and you know he's going to drop a boat load of cash on your presents, so you just cant wait to wake up and tear open the paper. I know Moss, Jacobs and Manningham aren't going to lead the league in any respective categories, but they are going to help! They are contributing factors to this feeling. This child like feeling!

This season is going to be special. I'm scheduled to see three games in person and know that we have a chance to win each and every one!

Who's Got It Better Then Us????? Nooooo Body!!