Kaep Dance: How Alex Smith Lost His Job to Colin Kaepernick

Alex Smith will likely be doing a lot of watching the rest of 2012.

In a way, I feel bad for Alex Smith.

After a rocky start to his 49ers career which featured just as many offensive coordinators & systems as seasons played, Alex finally got into his groove with head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman.

That triad of offensive folks has been an integral part in the sudden reemergence of a Niners squad that struggled to find offensive consistency in Smith's first six seasons on the team. Before the game in which Smith suffered his concussion against the Rams a couple weeks back, Smith was riding a hot streak with Harbaugh that he had never had before in his career. Including the 2011 playoffs, Smith helped lead the Niners to victories in 20 out of 26 games in the Harbaugh era (not including the tie, a game which he didn't finish).

However, he has been given the label "game manager" by many people. He has completed 64% of his regular season passes in the 25 regular season games in the Harbaugh era, but averaged under 200 yards a game (hardly a number that a great QB would average).

Then again, Smith was never supposed to be the key ingredient in 49ers success in the Harbaugh regime. A combination of a ground-and-pound with Frank Gore and play action has minimized the risk element that passing games can sometimes create (Smith had a league-low 1.1% of his passes intercepted last season).

With such success, why was Harbaugh so quick to oust a healthy Smith only to kick-start the career of Colin Kaepernick, who the Niners drafted in the second round of the 2011 draft?

It's quite simple - Harbaugh has wanted to move on from the Alex Smith era since he got to San Francisco

• Drafting of Kaepernick in 2011 2nd round, not a round where you normally draft QBs to be long-term understudies/back-ups. One of the first picks made in the Harbaugh era was the drafting of Kaepernick, who excelled in the pistol offense in his prestigious career at Nevada. At the time, Smith had been struggling to find consistency behind center. You could blame the coaches who couldn't maximize his talents (as Harbaugh has), the turnover of offensive coordinators in his tenure, the lack of talented targets that he has been surrounded with.
  
  For whatever reason, Smith has clicked for the Niners. Still, drafting Colin ultimately meant that Smith's days were numbered, even if he had as great of a run as he has now. The timing of the concussion allowed Harbaugh to insert Kaepernick into the starting lineup without ruffling the feathers of fans and media members who would have been puzzled and pissed off if Smith was demoted without seeing Kaepernick play.
  
  Sure, Harbaugh could have started the 2012 season with Kaepernick, but perhaps this was the easier way for him to insert Kaepernick into the lineup. Not as much fuss.
  
• Harbaugh flirted with Peyton Manning in the 2012 offseason. He may try to BS to the media and tell them he didn't want Peyton, but let's be real - Harbaugh wanted Peyton. He went to see Peyton's workout in March, only to be shunned when Manning chose the Denver as his next destination.
  
  During that time, Alex Smith didn't really field any serious offers from other teams. So when the Manning thing fell on its face, Harbaugh did an about-face and said Smith was their plan all along. The only way he's not legitimately BSing about this is if he thought Manning was not destined to be a Niner when he went to see him. Otherwise, Harbaugh was doing what most coaches would do with their starting QB - he coddles Smith's ego by telling everyone Smith was the planned starter for 2012 even though we know that the action of going to see Manning speaks louder than his words ever will.

Remember...Kaepernick still had to earn it...

The concussion was the best way for Harbaugh to make Kaepernick his starter. If Kaepernick had gotten beaten down by the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football, we wouldn't be talking about this and Alex Smith would be starting against the St. Louis Rams on Sunday. Smith would have started the Saints game and would have remained starter throughout the season regardless of his performance in that game.

As long as he doesn't mess up badly, Kaep will remain 49ers starter for years to come

However, Kaep looked like an All-Pro in his first career start against one of the league's best defenses. That performance earned him another start, a tough road test against the Saints, whose defense, to put it politely, has sucked this year.

If Kaep comes down a little bit this week, will he be replaced? At this point, I believe he has to play his way out of a starting role - like 3 or 4 interceptions-bad, a performance that would have people questioning his judgment for Harbaugh to take him out.

As simple as it was, I believe that the Wednesday press conference was the coronation of the Kaepernick era. If Harbaugh really wanted to go back to Alex this week and beyond, I don't think we get a special conference to announce that he will go back to starting - we'd be reading a simple blurb in an online article about it.

Instead, Harbaugh awkwardly tip-toed around the idea that Alex was a back-up and said that he was playing the "hot hand" with Kaepernick. Uhm, last I checked, Smith's last full-game was an 18-for-19, 232 yard, 3 passing TD performance - not sure it gets any hotter than that. (Even if you believe that Alex is a game manager, those kind of stats don't usually warrant a benching).

We shall see how Kaepernick does in the coming weeks, with tough road tests at New England and Seattle sprinkled in the end of season schedule. I believe he will succeed just as everything and everyone has succeeded since Harbaugh has become coach - this is ultimately the main reason why I support Harbaugh's decision to go with Kaepernick.

In Harbaugh We Trust

Harbaugh has handed over the offense to Kaepernick. We should trust his judgment

Harbaugh may not be the best at covering up his BS, but no one can question his effectiveness as a coach in the past decade.

In his coaching stints with San Diego (college), Stanford & San Francisco, Harbaugh has amassed a record of 79-32-1 (over 70% winning percentage).

He had success at San Diego which has yet to be replicated. He built Stanford from a bumbling Pac-10 school to one that now succeeds in both recruiting and on the field. Now, he's maximizing the talent that the Niners have and that other coaches (like Singletary) were unable to turn into success.

His short reign as 49ers coach has been nothing but a tremendous success (21-5-1 regular season mark and likely a second division title in two years). I'm willing to give Harbaugh the benefit of the doubt on this decision, even if it means benching a guy who's playing the best ball of his career in favor of a younger, more talented quarterback.

If the Niners don't win the Super Bowl (or hell, if they don't advance to the same point of the playoffs that they did last year with Smith), I'm sure we will hear all about how this was a bad decision and that Harbaugh should have stuck with Smith. If we judged all football decisions based on this criteria though, we could say 31 teams made bad decisions in their quest to win the Super Bowl.

I say let's see what Kaepernick can do with the remaining 5 games and see just how right (or wrong) Harbaugh's decision to play him will be.

The Beginning of Kaep as the San Franchise & Other Week 11 Musings

The free Gameday Magazine I got from the PR folks after the game along w/ my ticket stub for the MNF game against the Bears

For those who are "friends" with me on Facebook, you know by now that I went to San Francisco with my girlfriend Jen to celebrate her 30th birthday. We did all of the cool touristy stuff - walked on Golden Gate bridge, walked by the crooked part of Lombard street (and even had a cabbie drive us through it), Alcatraz tour, and so on.

The last major thing we did before flying back to Chicago was catching the Niners match-up against the Bears in a battle of back-up QBs, both who got the start thanks to QB concussions to the starters a week before.

Many were expecting the battle of Colin Kaepernick & Jason Campbell to be an ugly one. Well, it was, for half of them at least. While Kaep shined in his first career start, Campbell never had a shot, battling the combination of slow feet, a bad offensive front five & a devastating 49ers front that never really gave Campbell and company a chance to get into an offensive groove.

With the Niners carrying a 20-0 lead into the half, the real question to be solved was whether the Niners could complete the shutout, not whether the Bears had a chance to come back (they didn't). 

Another question that arose around Niner Nation and on ESPN was whether the Niners should stick with the second-year QB from Nevada or go back to the less-flashy veteran in Alex Smith.

First row seats for MNF have their perks

I've gone back and forth on this, and I think I've settled on the realization that Harbaugh will let Alex Smith play as long as he's healthy. One start does not make a season, even if it's against a solid defense in the Bears. I was at the game, so I'm not sure if it was more what the Niners were doing that was creating offensive success or if the Bears were just having a difficult time adjusting to a QB they didn't have much tape on.

I was wrong...about the Niners going with a conservative approach and running it a ton with Kaepernick starting. They threw the ball a lot more than I thought - this makes me believe that Harbaugh trusts him with the offense (and gives me hope that he might get another shot sooner rather than later).

Whatever the reason, I expect to see Smith starting if he is healthy. I know the veterans on the team respect everything Smith has gone through in his career with the Niners to get where he is at now. As much as I'd like to see how Kaepernick can build off of this start, I think we may need to wait and see on it (assuming Smith clears concussion tests this week).

I still believe Kaepernick will have the inside shot to start 2013 as the starter - wouldn't be surprised to see Alex Smith starting somewhere else next year (Kansas City, Philadelphia, NY Jets are possibilities IMO). Time will tell, but I believe Week 11 was the start of Kaepernick as the San Franchise QB.

Week 12 Preview

One reason I think Smith will start if he is healthy is because the Niners will be heading to N'Orleans to face an upstart Saints squad that is heating up at the right time (won 5 of their last 6). It'd be a lot to ask a young QB like Kaepernick to deal with the daunting environment that the Superdome presents.

Kyle Williams in a moment of thought/prayer before the game.

When I projected this game a few weeks ago, I projected this game as a likely loss for the Niners, but now that I thought about it, I give the edge to the Niners (regardless of QB). The Saints' defense remains a work-in-progress (462 yards allowed/game is by far the worst in the league) while the 49ers allow almost 200 yards (two football fields) less at 277 yards/game.

I expect the 49ers to be able to move the ball however they want to. The Saints' best chance of winning (as always) is to air it out with Drew Brees at a high rate and hope the defense has an NFL-average type of defensive effort. I think the Niners' strong line will be able to contain the Saints front and get the holes for Gore and Hunter as they have all year.

If Hunter wasn't behind Gore right now, I believe we'd be talking about him the way we're talking about C.J. Spiller's impact on the Bills.

I'll say the Niners take this one (regardless of QB) 27-24.

I can't wait...to see what the stadium in Santa Clara will look like. I've been to Candlestick three times in my life (all in the past four seasons), and while I've enjoyed Niners' victories each time, the stadium was nothing special. It's in the middle of nowhere in a crappy neighborhood. While it won't be in the city limits anymore, that's ok. From what I've seen of the stadium, it looks like it will be quite the modern masterpiece. I hope to see it in the next five years, hopefully during/after a season in which we will have won another ring.

Rams-Niners Recap

Well ladies and gentleman, it happened. Colin Kaepernick got in to the football game for a significant period of time and showed what he had to offer. He was good, but not very good. I'd say he was like Alex Smith circa-2008 good. He did enough though to keep us from losing, but not enough for us to win. If there is ever any indication of how his day went it was when there was a wide open open Kyle Williams streaking down the middle of the field and your favorite guy, Kaep, checked it down for no gain. Sure, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt that he was over there on the sidelines talking to his boy's when they made the call to put him in the game. He also got little to no reps with the first team, so that added to his awkwardness. If he gets a full week with the first team and Alex can't go I know he'll do better, but for his first significant amount of playing time, I'll give him a C+.

As for the rest of the team, how did we not lose yesterday. It really looked like from the first series the Ram's wanted to win the game and then at about the 8 minute mark of the 4th Quarter they called a team meeting and said, "Guys, we can not win this game. We must at all costs lose." That is what they did. Fumble a punt return, delay of game on the game winning field goal try and oh the idiotic lineman who didn't report as an eligible receiver penalty. They were the best team on the field yesterday in more ways then 1. They were the best NFL football team and the best at giving away a game. Unfortunately for them, the Niners didn't wake up enough from their post-election slumber to win the game.

I consider this a loss, even though it shows up as a tie in the standings. With the three losses they have 2 come against teams that at that stage of the season they should have rolled over. Wake up guys and play like Noooo-BODY's got it better then us!

A Look Ahead to Rest of 2012 and Playoff Projected Seed

The old cliche of players saying "one game at a time" is fine and dandy for them, but for us football hungry folks, it's fun to look ahead to see what lies ahead on the horizon.

The Niners have had another impressive start to 2012, even more so than 2011. And yet, last year, they were 7-1 at this point. I really like the balance a lot better this year than last, although I think we'll be in trouble if we fall behind in games by a touchdown or more (and yes, I don't trust Alex Smith in those spots).

Here's a list of box scores where Alex Smith has been behind center for a comeback of more than 7 points:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200512240ram.htm

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200601010sfo.htm

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200612310den.htm

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201110020phi.htm

Out of these games, only one is from the past five years, which happens to be the only one where Alex really did anything, when he helped lead a comeback after trailing by 23-3 to the Eagles only to win 24-23. If the Niners fall behind early in games (which hasn't happened much thanks to our defense), I worry about their ability to come back, especially if the team abandons the run like they did against the Giants.

I'm just hoping the Niners can win the same way they have this year (solid running/run blocking, short routes for Alex Smith to throw, and especially the shutdown D). If the D slips one game and falls behind 10-0/14-0, I will be worried about Alex if they're forced to throw their way out of the deficit.

Here's a short synopsis of the remaining games and what I am projecting from each:

Week 10: vs. St. Louis - This is a better St. Louis squad than what we faced last year, mainly due to the addition of Jeff Fisher as coach. I think he has the team prepared for this game, but the Niners should win this one 20-10.

Week 11: vs. Chicago - The end of a 5 of 6 stretch at home, arguably the best NFC match-up to date. I'm hoping Chicago gets softened up by Houston's defensive line. If the Bears can't force turnovers (which I don't think they will), I believe the Niners take this game under the lights by double digits - 27-14

Week 12: at New Orleans - I worry about this one more than Chicago. (1) Revenge game for New Orleans - Payton hasn't coached since that playoff loss; (2) Potent offense; (3) Short Week. I believe the Saints will take this one, and it'll be a high scoring affair - 31-27

Week 13: at St. Louis - I'd be mildly surprised if St. Louis took this one, especially if my project of a loss to the Saints holds true - since the 49ers under Harbaugh respond amazing after a loss. I'll say 24-9 SF.

Week 14: Miami - Who would have thought that this could be a competitive game entering the year, especially with how the Dolphins played in the pre-season? It'll be interesting to see if Miami can avoid the fate of other hot start teams (Arizona, Minnesota) or if this will just be the same story of a team over-achieving to start the year only to fade at the end. I'll give this one to SF 23-13

Week 15: at New England - This has potential to be one of the better cross-conference games this year (like this week's Chicago/Houston game). New England plays Houston the week before. Great coaching match-up between Harbaugh and Belichick. San Fran has proved it can beat a great team on the road this year (GB), but I think NE squeaks this one out 27-23.

Week 16: at Seattle - The Niners last road game could also end up being their most important, especially if a chance to clinch the division is on the line (if my projections are right, San Fran would be 10-4 at this point). Seattle could be about 8-6 at this point (but actually, I think we'd have the better division record even if we lost this game - which would be the second tiebreaker after head-to-head). Seattle is a tough place to play. We squeaked out a win last year, and like mentioned before, have been great after losses. However, I believe this may be the first time w/ consecutive losses for the Niners in the Harbaugh era - Seattle 20-17

Week 17: vs. Arizona - Arizona will likely just be looking to play spoiler at this point - a far cry from their 4-0 start (which most folks had an idea was somewhat fraudulent). I don't see San Fran losing three straight. If they haven't clinched the division by now, they will in Week 17. San Fran 31, Arizona 10


We'll see how my projections go. If I'm right on all of these (highly unlikely), the Niners will be 11-5 and likely looking at a #2 or #3 seed in the playoffs. Compared to my 9-7 projection and #4 seed, I'd say that my predictions have some faults to them.

Predicted seeds (and records) in NFC:

1. Atlanta (14-2)
2. Green Bay (I believe they will overtake the Bears) (12-4)
3. San Fran (11-5)
4. New York Giants (10-6)
5. Chicago (11-5)
6. Seattle (10-6)

If this happens, we're looking at a potential division game in the playoffs - Seattle at San Fran. Seattle has two of the best corners in the league (up there w/ Chicago). This would be a bloody playoff game.

If you have differing thoughts, please let me know.