A Farewell Letter to Alex Smith

Dear Alex Smith,

I wanted to write you today to wish you a proper farewell from the San Francisco 49ers organization. Moments after the Super Bowl ends, win or lose, will be the last moments where you don the gear of the five (nah, at that point, let's say six)-time champions.

It's weird for me to say goodbye to you in such a way, especially if you consider the arc of your career from being drafted #1 in the 2005 draft till the end of 2010, where your status with the team was in question following a series of lackluster seasons.

So long Alex. Thanks for the memories.

Granted, you didn't have much help. Year after year, a new coach or coordinator would come in and ruin any chance you had of establishing yourself as a consistent NFL quarterback. It also didn't help you missed a season in between in 2008, a year which most thought was going to be your last in your Niners career.

Somehow, through all of the turmoil and the catcalls for your ousting from the team, being replaced by the likes of Shaun Hill, Troy Smith, and Trent Dilfer, you somehow managed to keep a hold on the starting role entering the 2011 season, the inaugural tour of Jim Harbaugh's reign. It helped that there was going to be an extended lockout that extended into July that kept many teams from making moves outside of the status quo.

With Harbaugh's vote of confidence in his first offeseason as coach, you were the main man, the guy we fans would have to grin and bear another season with while we waited to rebuild and hope 2012 would be a great year with rookie Colin Kaepernick given the starting job to start the near season. Except you didn't play like you did the first six seasons of your career.

You finally broke through, like many QBs that Harbaugh has come across or recruited (Andrew Luck, RG3, now Kaepernick to name a few). With you under center, San Francisco started 2011 with nine wins in your first 10 starts en route to a 13-3 record and a first-round bye in the playoffs. You weren't exactly lighting up the scoreboard (only 17 TDs in 16 games & less than 200 yards/game), but you did everything required of you to win the games. You minimized mistakes, leading the league in interception ratio (only 1.1% of your throws were intercepted). You completed over 61% of your passes, a career-high.

And then there was the NFC Divisional game last year, the finest moment of your career. I was lucky enough to be in attendance for that game when the stadium shook several times in the fourth quarter. Your 28 yard scramble to put us ahead with just over 2 minutes left was not enough. Drew Brees' quick-strike ability required you to lead the Niners down the field again. And that's exactly what you did. Your pass that threaded the needle of the Saints defense to a similarly redeemed Vernon Davis was one that we Niners fans will never forget. Never mind the lackluster NFC Championship game the following week.

Alex: meet your successor.

The 2012 season started out well for you as well, proving to doubters that your 2011 season was no fluke. It helped to finally have a consistent offensive system for a second straight year. However, lurking in the shadows was a man toting a Pistol. A gun-slinger by the name of Colin Kaepernick, drafted in the second round by the Niners' brass. Harbaugh has been on record as saying he thought was the best player in the 2011 draft.

Colin's athletic presence was felt in small chunks, mostly in a role to throw off the opposing defense. But your job was fairly safe. Or so it seemed. Little did you know that reporting a concussion would be your undoing and essentially end your 49ers career. If we look at how your career started, it seems fitting that a play you likely don't even remember happening was likely the last one you played in a Niners uniform.

Kaepernick went on to throttling the Bears in his first career start, making fans and media wonder if Harbaugh would dare Wally Pipp* your career. Harbaugh dared to Pipp you, naming Kapernick the team's starter for the Saints game. He said he was "playing the hot hand", but you knew better. Harbaugh didn't draft Kaepernick to ride the bench for long.

Your strong 2011 campaign was better than Harbaugh could have imagined. There was no way in hell he could legitimately bench you to start 2012, no matter how much he was drooling at the sight of Kaepernick's rocket arm. Your concussion gave him his opening to start the Nevada product. Sadly for you and your starting aspirations, but luckily for Niners fans, the winning just kept on coming.

Now, you will sit on the bench in your final game as a San Francisco 49er. You may not have had the definition of a great career, but the moments you helped create in the past year and a half will never be forgotten. I hope you land with a team next year that will give you the chance to start next year, even if it's with a division foe in the Cardinals.

I hope you're able to get a Super Bowl ring in the meantime.

Sincerely,

49er Nation



*Pipp was the Yankees starting first-baseman who sat out one game due to a terrible headache and lost his job to a guy named Lou Gehrig, who never let go of the job for over 2,000 games.

From Risk to Reward: How the Harbaughs Made History

Bold moves by both Harbaughs have led their teams to the Super Bowl

In a football league rooted in conservatism, bold moves stand out like a sore thumb.

Remember years ago when Bill Belichick declined to punt on fourth and short from the Patriots own end zone against the Colts only to have his attempt to ice the game with a first down go down in a blaze, followed plays later by the inevitable Peyton Manning touchdown? Every expert dissected the idiocy of the play, wondering what would possess Belichick to go for the first down, one that would amplify the Colts' chances of winning.

No one speaks of this move if it works, so why the unequal treatment of coverage for these bold moves succeeding vs. failing miserably? The NFL, like many other sports and areas of life, is grounded in low-risk propositions that go along with the status quo.

In situations like Belichick's, about 30-31 other coaches would have punted in that scenario, even if that meant giving the ball to Peyton Manning with a minute and a half left. Even if it means bypassing the chance to actually win the game with one more first down. Time will never tell if Peyton scores from 70-75 yards out on that drive, but what time does tell is that coaches will always lean to being ultra-conservative, even if the risk that is taken is so small and the reward is so big (see John Fox's handling of the offense in the Broncos' last two drives of regulation - a first down in the second-to-last drive seals the game, but Fox decided to run it on 3rd-and-7; on the second drive, Fox told Peyton to take a knee despite the Broncos having plenty of time and timeouts to spare to get into field goal range).

Playing Harbaughs

Which brings me to my subject...or should I say, subjects: the Harbaugh Brothers.

Each man made a calculated risk in the middle of a solid regular season showing that many coaches would not dare make, for fear of losing their jobs if the move goes wrong.

The first bold move was made by younger brother Jim, who decided to start Colin Kaepernick following an Alex Smith concussion. Smith was coming off of one of his finest stretches of his career before the concussion, leading the Niners to a 6-2-1 record in his starts. So when he was cleared to play, Smith was surprised to learn that he lost his job to the talented former Nevada Wolfpack slinger. At first, Jim said he was just playing the hot hand, but the hot hand turned into the only hand - the right hand of Kaep.

The second bold move was made by John. This may have been even bolder than Kaepernick, if only for the timing of it as it relates to the postseason. With three games to go, John made the toughest decision he has ever made as coach - firing offensive coordinator Cam Cameron and promoting their QB coach Jim Caldwell to play-calling duties. At the time, the Ravens were in the process of a major downslide, which ended with them losing four out of their last five games. Still, at the time of the firing, the Ravens were well on their way to the playoffs and a division crown.

The move shocked Flacco and company. However, it has paid its dividends in the form of a much-improved running game: going from 108 yards/game with Cameron calling plays to averaging 155 in the six games with Caldwell.

Bold is Beautiful

Both moves were dissected heavily when made, but there's no questioning how effective both moves were. For how many people were critiquing the moves when they were made, you don't hear many people saying "I was wrong; Harbaugh was right." Yet you know if San Fran failed early in the playoffs or Baltimore didn't advance as far as they did, the talking heads wouldn't be able to stop talking about how right they were.

Fortunately for the Harbaughs, in a league that critiques bold moves, it's those very bold moves made by the boldest of coaches that has these teams in the position they are in. It's one of the many reasons why New England has succeeded as long as they have with Belichick. While others are playing "not to lose", these gents are playing to win the damn game.

Let's hope that some day, one day, these risky maneuvers, whether made on the field or off of it, are applauded and not lauded. Each coach still alive for the Super Bowl crown can attest to the rewards that their risks have led to.

Channeling Bill Walsh & A Look Towards SF/GB matchup

I hope this is a sight that us Niners fans will see, except with Jim Harbaugh being hoisted on top.

On my flight home from my 30th birthday Vegas trip, I read Building a Champion by Bill Walsh, and it was well worth the read for any football fan, especially 49ers fans.

The book covers his entire coaching career, allowing us to see how much of a genius the man was. His building of the 49ers from a team that had as much talent as an expansion team to a consistent Super Bowl contending team in only a couple of years was nothing short of miraculous.

Here are a few things I took away from it that (a) I didn't know going into my read or (b) apply to current football stories/situations:

1. Walsh liked to use plays from the past. As an assistant with the Bengals in the late 1960s, Walsh would look at plays on tape that had died out about twenty years earlier. His logic was that coaches would not prepare for plays that they have never experienced or seen on tape. This makes so much sense, yet I never thought of it. I have to believe coaches who can effectively look at the past in such a manner to design plays have a significant advantage versus those who don't.
   
2. Bill Walsh had a great coaching tree. I knew this going in, but forgot the extent of the tree. I went online and looked at the complete tree and was amazed. Many current coaches (including both Harbaughs) come from some branch of the tree. Not only that, but many of these coaches have won (or at least appeared in) Super Bowls: Mike Holmgren (one title); Jim Fassel; Sam Wyche; George Seifert (two titles); Andy Reid; John Fox; Mike McCarthy (one title); John Gruden (one title); Mike Shanahan (two titles); Brian Billick (one title); Tony Dungy (one title); Mike Tomlin (two titles); and Lovie Smith.
   
   By my count, that's 13 coaches from this tree who have made the Super Bowl, with 11 titles in this coaching tree since 1989 (basically once every other year since Walsh retired). With many of the Walsh tree still alive (the Harbaughs, John Fox, Gary Kubiak, Mike McCarthy and Mike Smith), #12 could be right around the corner.
   
   I found this on Wikipedia - the bottom part of each branch shows many of these familiar names coaching today:
   
   
3. Walsh's rise (and continued success) through the coaching ranks seems to be the path that Jim Harbaugh is following. Don't take this as an insult. I know Harbaugh doesn't have the coaching longevity and success that Walsh had, but his ascent is similar to Walsh's, with both having a brief successful coaching stint at Stanford before going to coach the 49ers. Harbaugh had more success in his first year as coach, but he had much more talent than Walsh did.
   
4. Another Harbaugh/Walsh comparison - the QB controversy: Harbaugh experienced his first "controversy" (although it seems to be more media/fan driven than anything) much earlier in his 49ers coaching career than Walsh did with Joe Montana and Steve Young. In Walsh's case, he was able to avoid the brunt of the controversy and hand that off to George Seifert (Montana was traded to Kansas City in the 1990s while Young helped the Niners win their 5th Super Bowl in 1995).
   
   One thing I can say about both coaches - they both seem to have a great handle on the quarterback position, which is the most important position to get right in the NFL. Walsh had an eye for talent - he brought Ken Anderson (one of the best QBs not in the Hall of Fame) to the Bengals in the 1970s, drafted Montana in the third round and traded for Steve Young for a few mid-round picks. Harbaugh has had his own Luck (literally, the Andrew version, while at Stanford anyways) and seems to have a potentially great QB with Kaepernick.

There were also some other stories that I found fascinating - his description of being chastised during the latter half of his stay in San Fran and feeling like there was really no way for the media to eventually turn on a coach seemed to mirror some current coaches who got fired (Andy Reid & Lovie Smith).

All in all, the Bill Walsh book set the tone for what will hopefully be a fantastic Saturday in 49er Country.

Quick Analysis for Saturday's game: Forget the Packers game in Week 1. So much is different now than the opener, most notably the switch from Alex Smith to Colin Kaepernick. After a slow start, the Packers finished strong down the stretch (outside of their Week 17 loss to the Vikings).

My biggest concern (outside of special teams - signing Billy Cundiff....yikes)  for the Niners heading into the game is Justin Smith, whose absence against the Seahawks in Week 16 was very noticeable. Justin's playing through the injury, although I don't think the Packers have the run game to expose this potential deficiency.

I do worry about Aaron Rodgers obviously, but I feel that we should be able to defend them better than most teams. I'm expecting the Niners to establish the run and have many long possessions that keep the Packers offense off the field and out of rhythm.

I look for this to be a lower-scoring game than earlier this season and lower than most Niners game have been down the stretch (total points in Niners games went from 36.5 in the first eight games to 47.25 in the last eight, which coincides with the change in QB). I see the Niners squeezing out a victory 21-17 to advance to their second consecutive NFC Championship game, where they will meet the Atlanta Falcons. I expect the Packers game to be the best game of the weekend for NFL fans.

In the other games, I have a gut feeling on Baltimore pulling off the upset (Peyton's teams seem to fail right around this time of year in this same situation) and Houston keeping it close, but ultimately losing to, the Patriots.

I hope my prediction (at least about the Niners victory) is correct. I will be at the Shamrock in the River North area drinking to victory or defeat either way. Feel free to join me.

Who's got it better than us? Noooooooo-body.